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NBA Picks + NBA Odds: Nuggets vs Clippers
Jamal Murray Under 24.5 Points -106 (BetMGM)
This second round playoff series kicks off tonight with the three-seeded Nuggets poaying the second-seed Clippers. Denver played an epic series against Utah in the first round, and it came down to a Game 7 missed 3-pointer by Utah to move the Nuggets onto the second round. Meanwhile, the Clippers survived a minor scare against Luka Doncic and the Mavericks.
There are all sorts of situations to break down, but I am going to short Jamal Murray’s point total, which sits at 24.5 in this Game 1 matchup. You could easily make the case that Murray was the MVP of the entire first round with his mind-boggling 31 points per game, including shooting nearly 50% from the 3-point line. He exploded for over 40 in three straight games, and he is the reason the Nuggets survived and advanced.
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As good as Murray was, he was shooting at a wildly unsustainable percentage and now draws a completely different matchup than Utah. I am not saying that he will not have any success against this Clippers defense in this series, but it is a hard reset for a guy that clearly was in a groove against what Utah was throwing at him. I believe this point total is slightly inflated due to that impressive first round, so I will sell right off the bat before the books have a chance to possibly catch up to Murray coming back to earth.
Price wise, BetMGM has this under at -106, but there are a handful of -110s across the industry, so you have some decent numbers available at several books. Keep an eye on where this closes, as I would not be surprised to see this start to shade the other way if a lot of people are believers in the Clippers defense.
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