NBA Picks: Nuggets vs Clippers NBA Bet of the day

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NBA Picks + NBA Odds: Nuggets vs Clippers

Jamal Murray Under 24.5 Points -106 (BetMGM)

This second round playoff series kicks off tonight with the three-seeded Nuggets poaying the second-seed Clippers. Denver played an epic series against Utah in the first round, and it came down to a Game 7 missed 3-pointer by Utah to move the Nuggets onto the second round. Meanwhile, the Clippers survived a minor scare against Luka Doncic and the Mavericks.

There are all sorts of situations to break down, but I am going to short Jamal Murray’s point total, which sits at 24.5 in this Game 1 matchup. You could easily make the case that Murray was the MVP of the entire first round with his mind-boggling 31 points per game, including shooting nearly 50% from the 3-point line. He exploded for over 40 in three straight games, and he is the reason the Nuggets survived and advanced.

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As good as Murray was, he was shooting at a wildly unsustainable percentage and now draws a completely different matchup than Utah. I am not saying that he will not have any success against this Clippers defense in this series, but it is a hard reset for a guy that clearly was in a groove against what Utah was throwing at him. I believe this point total is slightly inflated due to that impressive first round, so I will sell right off the bat before the books have a chance to possibly catch up to Murray coming back to earth.

Price wise, BetMGM has this under at -106, but there are a handful of -110s across the industry, so you have some decent numbers available at several books. Keep an eye on where this closes, as I would not be surprised to see this start to shade the other way if a lot of people are believers in the Clippers defense.

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Author

Ben Rasa

*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].