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NFL Betting Picks: Week 10 Monday Night Football NFL Odds
Nick Foles Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns: -135 (William Hill, as of 9:30 a.m.)
We close out Week 10 of the NFL with an important divisional game from the NFC North. The Vikings travel to Chicago to take on the Bears in a game that is expected to stay competitive. Minnesota is a 3-point favorite on the road with an over/under at 43.5 points. Both of these teams absolutely need this game if they want playoff hopes, so a lot is on the line.
For a player prop I am going to Nick Foles. His passing touchdown prop sits at 1.5 tonight and despite the struggles for this Bears team I am going to back Foles and go over in this spot. The first reason to think Foles may be busy tonight is that the backfield for Chicago is a mess with David Montgomery joining Tarik Cohen on the sidelines. This is going to force them into a pass-heavy attack if they either fall behind or have limited success with the remaining backs. That’s not a bad thing for them, as Minnesota’s secondary has been an issue all year. They are allowing 7.8 yards per passing attempt, which ranks 27th. Foles should have opportunities to make plays on the outside regardless of game script.
The passing volume for Chicago is another reason to back this prop, as Foles is dropping back early and often. He’s thrown 39 or more passes in all six of his starts and is coming off a game against Tennessee where he dropped back 52 times. That type of opportunity is what we want when backing an over here, and I don’t see that script changing tonight. The price is a reasonable -135, which I am comfortable backing before it possibly steams closer to -150. The combination of the matchup with the Vikings secondary and the fact Chicago is a one-dimensional offense is the situation we want for this prop, and the price is right to place a wager.
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