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NFL Betting Picks: Week 11 Monday Night Football
NFL Prop Bet: Mike Evans Under 4.5 Receptions: -121 (BetMGM, as of 9:30 a.m.)
We close out Week 11 of the NFL with a quality Monday Night game out of the NFC. The Rams travel to Tampa to take on the Buccaneers in a game that could determine seeding and much more come playoff time. Tampa is 7-3 and a 4-point favorite in a game with a reasonable 48.5 over/under, so there are a lot of directions to lean in this one.
There are a ton of options in the prop world with a game like this, as both teams have play makers all over the field. I am going to Mike Evans, who draws a tough matchup against the Rams secondary. With a reception prop of 4.5, I am willing to make a play on the under in this spot. Evans has shown himself to be a massive red zone threat, but the consistent target share hasn’t been overly reliable this season, with the Buccaneers spreading the ball around.
Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown are back on the field, so Tampa now has an embarrassment of riches offensively. Evans still is a focal point — no argument there — but Tom Brady certainly doesn’t need to go to him if there are other exploitable matchups. This week Evans most likely will draw coverage of Jalen Ramsey, who is an elite cornerback playing at a level worthy of all the accolades he is receiving. He has a string of successful matchups against top-level receivers and is coming off a game where he limited D.K. Metcalf to just two catches.
Last game, Tampa had nine different players receive at least one target, which speaks to how Brady wants to spread the ball around. Evans did dominate the target share in that Week 10 matchup against Carolina, but this is a completely different test with Ramsey lurking on the other side. Additionally, the pressure the Rams may put on Brady could cause shorter passes and checkdowns, which also works against a downfield threat like Evans. With this prop at just -121 for the under at a few books, it is worth a shot that Tampa’s gameplan centers around other options outside Evans.
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