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NFL Picks + NFL Odds: Chiefs vs. Texans
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Rushing Yards Over 49.5: -110 (DraftKings, as of 9:30 a.m.)
There were a lot of questions about whether we would see any football in 2020, but we are at least going to get some form of a season as the NFL gets ready to kickoff the year. We get things started with the Super Bowl champs at home against the Texans, in a rematch of an AFC playoff game last season. Arrowhead will not be even close to the normal atmosphere due to fan restrictions, but Kansas City is still a sizable 9.5-point favorite.
We know how stacked the Chiefs offense is, so trying to pinpoint the production can be difficult. There are several props to look to, but I am going to the backfield and specifically the rookie RB out of LSU with Clyde Edwards-Helaire. His rushing prop sits at 49.5 on DraftKings, and I find myself leaning towards the over.
With Damien Williams opting out, we have Edwards-Helaire ready to hit the ground running, and he should be heavily involved in this game. He is versatile, so some of that work may be through the air, but I still expect a healthy workload on the ground for him right out of the gate. The game script should be in his favor because Kansas City should be winning late leading to more work later into the game. The Texans defense was 24th last year in rushing yards allowed per game, and I don’t see many reasons why they would be improved in 2020. Kansas City has so much firepower on the outside that Houston will not be able to stack the box and Edwards-Helaire should have opportunities for some big time plays.
Looking over the markets, this prop sits at 49.5 (-110) on DraftKings, which is the best price I could find. Several other books have this rushing yard prop more in the mid 50s at -110, so we are stealing a handful of yards by shopping the line. With so much uncertainty due to no preseason, trying to predict game flow is even more important, and the Chiefs are the biggest spread on the board. I expect the volume to be there, and if that is the case, I’ll gladly lean over 49.5 for the rookie back, who is sure to be a key piece of this offense.
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