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NFL Picks + NFL Odds: Monday Night Football | Ravens vs. Chiefs
NFL Pick: Travis Kelce Over 5.5 Receptions: -139 (BetMGM) Â
We round out Week 3 in the NFL with a game worthy of a stage to itself. The defending Super Bowl champs go into Baltimore to take on the Ravens in what most expect is the warmup for the eventual AFC Championship game. Last year Baltimore was the dominant team in the regular season but was unable to get it done in the playoffs to set up what many expected to be a clash of these teams in that AFC title game. The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 55, so points are expected.
In the prop world, there are a ton of options to choose from, but I am going to the Chiefs’ side of things with their all-world tight end Travis Kelce. We know that Kansas City has a ton of talent, and in a lot of ways, it is pick your poison for opposing defenses. Still, Kelce is a matchup nightmare and one of the most reliable targets for this offense. Through two games he has 15 receptions on 20 targets and looks to once again be in line for a monster season. Tonight his reception prop sits at 5.5, and I am targeting the over despite it being somewhat juiced at -139.
One of the things that’s interesting about this game is the Chiefs are rarely, if ever, underdogs, which could add even more firepower to the passing game. It’s not to say they will definitely trail in what is a toss-up game, but if they are behind, that means even more work for Kelce and Mahomes. Last week Kansas City was trailing throughout, and Kelce had nine receptions on 14 targets. Those numbers to me are reasonable in this spot, and I believe Kelce will be the primary method of attacking the Ravens defense. Both offenses know they will need to move the ball and put up points and this could quickly become a back-and-forth affair, which is another positive sign.
This prop is -139 at BetMGM, which is actually a steal when considering the other options. Most other books have this at -155, and there are a few that are up to -175 on Kelce getting over this 5.5 reception prop. That in itself is creating value and I think the closing line will be more around those -155 to -175 prices considering the situation this Chiefs offense is tonight. I expect a big game from Kelce tonight and will get a position on this prop now while the price is right.
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Odds shopping is the best way to make sure you’re finding the best bang for your betting buck. Please enjoy our new FREE website that shows you what each sports betting odds are in real-time. You can sign up, track your bets, get notifications when a line moves and see how much money your’e making over time. Check it out right HERE.
