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NFL Prop Bet Pick of the Day | Monday Night Football Saints vs. Chargers | Week 5

Ben Rasa

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FanDuel NFL DFS Cheat Sheet for Monday Night Football between the Chargers and Saints, based of Awesemo's projections.daily fantasy football.

NFL Odds shopping is the best way to make sure you’re finding the best bang for your betting buck. Please enjoy our new, FREE website that shows you what each sports betting odds are in real time. You can sign up, track your bets, get notifications when a line moves and see how much money you’re making over time. Check it out right HERE. Lets get into the daily NFL Picks, including a prop bet from the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Chargers for Monday Night Football.


NFL Picks + NFL Odds: Monday Night Football | Saints vs. Chargers

Joshua Kelley Under 49.5 Rushing Yards: -112 (DraftKings, as of 11:30 a.m.)

Normally I would say we close out Week 5 of the NFL, but with the rare Tuesday Night game tomorrow this isn’t the finale. We still have a big time Monday Night Football game to breakdown between the Los Angeles Chargers and the New Orleans Saints. Vegas has the Saints as a touchdown favorite at home in this one and both teams really could use this win. The Chargers made it official that Justin Herbert will be their guy going forward, as he became tough to take off the field after being thrown into the fire.

In the prop world we have a ton of options to choose from, but I am going to the Chargers with one of their running backs in Joshua Kelley. We know that Austin Ekeler is going to be sidelined for some time, so it is now on Kelley and Justin Jackson to lead their backfield. From early-season data, it looks like Kelley will get first crack, but I think this will be a time share with Kelley getting slightly more, especially on the ground. The rushing yards prop sits at 49.5 yards for Kelley, and although he is the lead back, I am going under in this spot.

The Saints have a strong front which currently is third in the league in rushing yards allowed per attempt. They also are a favorite, so the Chargers could easily be abandoning the run late in this game if they are playing from behind. In the last game Kelley did absolutely nothing against Tampa’s strong front rushing for 7 yards on nine carries, and that was a game where Ekeler only had two carries before being injured. Of the 23 rushes the Chargers had last week, Herbert took five and Jackson took six, which could impact the volume Kelley sees in this spot.

I expect a similar breakdown of carries here, and against a strong front, I think Kelley will need double-digit rushes to push over this prop. This prop is lined -112 on either side, which I am comfortable backing, as I believe the under 49.5 should be favorite in this spot. With all the unknowns and the tough matchup, I will short this running game and hope the Saints get out in front and force the Chargers to pass.


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*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing support@awesemo.com.

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