NFL Prop Bet Pick of the Day | Tuesday Night Football Titans vs. Bills | Week 5

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NFL Picks + NFL Odds: Tuesday Night Football | Titans vs. Bills

A.J. Brown Over 58.5 Receiving Yards: -112 (DraftKings, as of 11:30 a.m.)

We close out Week 5 of the NFL season with an incredibly rare Tuesday Night Football game. This is a huge matchup in the AFC with the Bills traveling to Tennessee to take on the Titans. Both of these teams have deep playoff runs in mind in 2020, and winning this game could determine home field advantage when the time comes. The Titans have been hit the hardest with COVID and are coming off a forced bye week due to a string of positive tests. The Bills are 4-0 and coming off another win against the Raiders that looks much better after seeing Las Vegas take down the Chiefs on Sunday.

In the prop world, I am going to the Titans’ big-play receiver A.J. Brown. We haven’t seen Brown since opening Week against Denver, as he is fighting a knee injury that kept him out of Weeks 2 and 3. He now is set to return after the extra week of rest due to the bye week and should be immediately relied on heavily for Tennessee. Make sure he is suiting up, but all indications are that he will be ready to roll for tonight. The over/under for his receiving yards is 58.5 on DraftKings, and I am going to take a shot with the over here. This is a top-end receiver who immediately is going to get the targets. Despite a tough matchup potentially with Tre’Davious White, I think the volume will be there.

The big reason Brown should be busy is that the Titans are missing two main wide receivers in Corey Davis and Adam Humphries due to the COVID outbreak they suffered. This is why Brown playing is so key, and if they are going to have any success through the air, it has to be him doing the heavy lifting. Buffalo is middle of the pack sitting 18th in passing yards allowed per attempt, so the Titans should have opportunities to move the ball thru the air. With Brown clearly being the top option, I expect a massive target share, and the volume alone has me interested in this line which is sitting at just -112 to the over.


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Author
*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].

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