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4/29/22 MUST-BET NBA Player Props for Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Game 6 | D’Angelo Russell

Henry John



Awesemo's free NBA player prop bets today & NBA playoff picks with expert betting advice, tips & strategy tonight | D'Angelo Russell 4/29/22

Only one First Round series remains up for grabs in these NBA Playoffs. As a result, it will be a fairly quiet next 48 hours as far as action on the hardwood is concerned. While only having one game on the docket tonight limits the NBA betting picks menu a bit, there are still a handful of worthwhile opportunities to pursue in the player props market. Bettors can easily enhance their NBA player props handicapping process further by including the redesigned OddsShopper as well as NBA betting tips today. Thanks to this tremendous tool, finding the best NBA player props bets today is as simple as three quick steps: Filter, sort, bet.

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With help from OddsShopper, the following article highlights three must-bet NBA player props for Friday night’s Game 6 playoff matchup between the Memphis Grizzlies and Minnesota Timberwolves.

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With OddsShopper, finding the best NBA player props betting odds is fast and simple. All users have to do is filter the prop selections, sort the page and find the best pick to bet. The process is extremely quick and highly effective. Try out the tool for yourself tonight with the three featured prop bets below!

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Desmond Bane Under 21.5 Points (-110, DraftKings)

Desmond Bane should have been awarded Most Improved Player over his Grizzlies teammate, Ja Morant. In many ways, this first-round series has been the perfect indicator of just how improved Bane’s game is. On the full season, Morant averaged 18.2 points per game, good for 34th among all players in the Association. After coming up just shy of that mark in Games 1 and 2 of this series, Bane has been exceeding NBA player props expectations ever since. Games 3-5 saw him score 26, 34 and 25 points, respectively. Bane has yet to shoot worse than 40% from the field in any game during these playoffs.

The question ahead of tonight’s Game 6 in Minneapolis is whether or not Bane can sustain this level of offensive production? Given how he has been blowing past his per-game scoring average, NBA betting oddsmakers have been left with no choice but to adjust his prop total. As a result, tonight’s line of 21.5 points sits over three full points clear of Bane’s typical production. Despite this, OddsShopper shows that only a couple of sportsbooks in the market have juiced their odds to the under on this lofty total.

In these playoffs Bane has shot 47.6% from the field and 46.8% from three-point range. His regular-season shooting percentages of 46.1% (43.6% from beyond the arc) suggest that some degree of regression is likely. The Timberwolves certainly leave much to be desired defensively. That being said, it would be remarkable if Bane can destroy his scoring average and NBA player props total four games in a row. OddsShopper is bearish on that outcome happening and projects Bane for only 19.38 points in tonight’s game. At the best available price point of -110, betting this prop under will afford an expected ROI of 17%.

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D’Angelo Russell Over 16.5 Points (-110, Caesars)

After erupting for 29 points in the Timberwolves’ play-in tournament victory, guard D’Angelo Russell has had a brutal shooting series against Memphis. In fact, a 22-point effort in Game 3 marks the only time in this series that Russell has scored more than a dozen points. Considering that he averaged 18.1 points per game over the course of the full season, his shooting and scoring woes in the postseason thus far have been a major disappointment.

The ugly performances have also worked to lower the outlook on Russell as far as the NBA player props market is concerned. His scoring prop total is set at just 16.5 points ahead of Game 6 tonight, over 1.5 points below his season average. OddsShopper also shows that the market is split on this scoring total in terms of pricing. Some sportsbooks are juiced to the over, while others have odds shifted towards the under. Thus, the favorable -110 price on the over offers a 10 cent advantage over other listings.

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Considering the fact that the Wolves want to push the pace and score in transition, Russell figures to see at least 10-12 shot attempts tonight just as he has all series long. It is simply a matter of hitting on more of those to send him over his NBA betting total. OddsShopper is quite confident in his ability to do so, projecting 18.82 points for Russell in Game 6. At -110 odds, this prop carries a solid 20% expected ROI value.

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Patrick Beverley Over 3.5 Rebounds (-150, FanDuel)

Patrick Beverley began the NBA Postseason by grabbing a whopping 11 rebounds in the Timberwolves’ play-in tournament win. He then managed to follow that up with another half-dozen boards in Game 1 of this series against Memphis. Ever since then, the league’s scrappiest player has hardly been a factor on the glass. Beverley only managed to corral two rebounds in each of Games 2-4 and had three in Game 5 on Wednesday. As a result of the dip in production, the NBA player props market lists Beverley’s rebounding total at 3.5 ahead of tonight’s contest.

First and foremost, it’s worth noting that this rebounding prop line has been adjusted down from 4.5, the consensus prop total for Beverley earlier in the series. It’s also worth pointing out that this newly adjusted figure is a full half-rebound below the 4.1 Beverley averaged over the course of the full season. Sure, the Grizzlies own the best rebound rate of any team in the NBA this season. However, this is truly a buy-low number when it comes to Beverley specifically.

OddsShopper suggests that the NBA betting market is well aware of this prop’s buy-low intrigue. All sportsbooks are requiring bettors to lay hefty juice to play over on this rebounding prop. While the optimal price point of -150 can hardly be considered cheap, it certainly is more appealing than other listings in the market, some of which are as high as -190. OddsShopper has assigned a 64% win probability to the over, projecting Beverley for 4.44 rebounds tonight. Even with the required juice, this prediction still has a 7% ROI at the preferred price.

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