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3 MUST-BET NBA Player Props Bets & Picks Today: Dejounte Murray & Pascal Siakam 3/11/22

Henry John



Best NBA bets today free expert NBA predictions and player prop picks tonight Spurs vs. Pelicans NBA Play-In Tournament

Right now, much of the basketball world is locked in on the college game. For bettors, it is never wise to limit your options. While conference tournaments are busy dominating the sports headlines and household TV sets, the NBA quietly has a loaded 10-game slate lined up for Friday. Such volume is certain to yield some profitable betting opportunities in the NBA props market. You can easily enhance your NBA player props handicapping process further by including the redesigned OddsShopper as well as NBA betting tips today. Thanks to this tremendous tool, finding the best NBA player props bets today is as simple as three quick steps: Filter, sort, bet.

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With help from OddsShopper, the following article highlights three must-bet NBA player props for Friday’s action.

Best NBA Player Prop Bets & Expert Betting Picks Today

With OddsShopper, finding the best NBA betting player props is fast and simple. All users have to do is filter the prop selections, sort the page and find the best pick to bet. The process is extremely quick and highly effective. Try out the tool for yourself tonight with the three featured prop bets below!

Dejounte Murray Over 8.5 Assists (+100, BetMGM)

San Antonio Spurs point guard Dejounte Murray continues to put up gaudy numbers on a seemingly nightly basis. He has been just a few stats away from recording four straight triple-doubles to begin the month of March. On Wednesday night, Murray came exactly one rebound shy of achieving the feat as he posted 25 points and a whopping 12 assists. Since the All-Star break, the 25-year-old has now dished at least eight assists in five of six games played. Three of those efforts saw him post double-digit totals. On the season overall, Murray is averaging 9.4 dimes per game. This mark comes in nearly one full assist above tonight’s NBA player props total of 8.5.

Tonight sees the Spurs host a top-10 defensive efficiency opponent in the Utah Jazz. However, Murray has already proven capable of producing against solid defensive teams. The near-miss triple-double he achieved just two nights ago came against a sturdy Toronto defense. From a statistical standpoint, Murray would need to come up over one assist short relative to his per-game average on the season to stay under the NBA betting line. The fact that OddsShopper also shows several sportsbooks juiced to the over only adds to the value. Optimal +100 odds afford bettors an increased payout and an advantage of up to 25 cents relative to other shops. Thanks to the preferred odds, Awesemo has assigned a solid ROI of 16% to this NBA props wager.

Pascal Siakam Over 3.5 Assists (-143, BetMGM)

While an NBA player props assist total of 3.5 for Pascal Siakam might make sense based on recent performance, it comes in far below his season average of 5.0 per game. Of course, a revolving door of Siakam’s Toronto Raptors teammates going in and out of the lineup has impacted the team’s offense in recent games. Although ‘Spicy P’ came up short of this NBA props total in the most recent game, a total of three assists saw him barely finish under the number. With primary point guard Fred VanVleet returning, Siakam figures to perform closer to his usual production than when he had to serve as a primary scorer. 

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It’s also worth pointing out that the current market consensus line of 3.5 assists is one full assist lower than OddsShopper showed for Siakam earlier this week. In actuality, having VanVleet back on the floor should prove beneficial. Regression to the mean is also expected sooner than later. After totaling three assists or less in three of the last four games, Siakam should wind up closer to his per-game average tonight. Awesemo’s projections have him sailing over the NBA betting line with a prediction of 4.73 assists. This translates to a hefty win probability of 69% for the over. Despite having to lay fairly significant juice on the over, bettors can still obtain an 18% ROI when they make this bet using optimal -143 odds. 

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Kristaps Porzingis Over 6.5 Rebounds (-105, Caesars)

Two games into his time with the Washington Wizards, Kristaps Porzingis has made quite an impact in the scoring column. Despite only playing 21 and 26 minutes in his first two games with the team, Porzingis totaled 25 and 19 points, respectively. Unfortunately, he has yet to show up in the rebounding column relative to his usual production. The 26-year-old managed five boards in his team debut on Sunday but got outworked inside on Wednesday night and had but a single rebound in the game. Considering that the Latvian is averaging 7.7 rebounds per game on the season overall, one has to believe that positive regression is on the way for the Wizards’ new center.

One facet that should help those who bet over the NBA player props total of 6.5 boards for Porzingis this evening is Washington’s opposition. The Los Angeles Lakers have struggled mightily on the glass this season, among other areas. L.A. has secured only 48.6% of available rebounds on the season. This mark only ranks 24th in the NBA in Rebound Rate. Considering the Wizards’ own struggles on the boards this season, the opportunity is certainly there for Porzingis to assert himself and make an impact. While OddsShopper lists this prop total at 6.5 across the NBA betting market, bettors can still find 10 cents of value on the price by targeting optimal -105 odds. With a projection of 7.49 rebounds, Awesemo gives this prediction an expected ROI of 21%.

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