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3 MUST-BET NBA Player Props Bets & Picks Today: James Harden & Alex Caruso 3/29/22

Henry John

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Tuesday night’s NBA basketball card includes five games. Playoff seeding implications abound in several of these games, including both of the nationally televised matchups. With only eight days remaining in the regular season, the stakes are high for the teams and players. The same can be said for bettors as the regular season window for NBA betting picks and props is nearly closed. You can easily enhance your NBA player props handicapping process further by including the redesigned OddsShopper as well as NBA betting tips today. Thanks to this tremendous tool, finding the best NBA player props bets today is as simple as three quick steps: Filter, sort, bet.

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With help from OddsShopper, the following article highlights three must-bet NBA player props for Tuesday’s action.

Best NBA Player Prop Bets & Expert Betting Picks Today

With OddsShopper, finding the best NBA player props betting odds is fast and simple. All users have to do is filter the prop selections, sort the page and find the best pick to bet. The process is extremely quick and highly effective. Try out the tool for yourself tonight with the three featured prop bets below!

Alex Caruso Over 3.5 Rebounds (-134, FanDuel)

Since returning to the Chicago Bulls‘ lineup, Alex Caruso has failed to supply much in terms of statistical production. He has had a much greater impact on the defensive end than offensively. Over the last few games, this includes his efforts on the glass. A five-rebound performance just last night marked the third time in the last four games in which Caruso met or exceeded that number. In doing so, he has also been able to clear tonight’s NBA player props total of 3.5 boards.

Given that Caruso has only averaged 3.7 rebounds per game on the season overall, the NBA betting line is pretty much spot on. However, it is worth noting the status of other Bulls players when handicapping this NBA props offering. While Lonzo Ball remains sidelined with a torn meniscus, fellow guard Zach LaVine is also questionable to play tonight with knee soreness. Considering that LaVine did lace them up for yesterday’s game, it would not come as a shock to see the Bulls hold him out for the second night of the back-to-back.

Obtaining value is something that bettors should always aim to do. While OddsShopper notes that sportsbooks are requiring fairly significant juice to bet Caruso over 3.5 rebounds, the prices do vary across the market. Optimal -134 odds come in over 20 cents cheaper than what other books are offering. Even with the juice, Awesemo’s projections have assigned a favorable ROI of 16% to this over prediction. An exact projection for Caruso to finish with 4.57 boards tonight also results in a hefty 67% win probability for the over.

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James Harden Under 7.5 Rebounds (-118, FanDuel) 

Second place in the Eastern Conference will be on the line tonight when the Philadelphia 76ers host the Milwaukee Bucks. Trade deadline acquisition James Harden has Sixers fans feeling like their team is a championship contender this season. Although his scoring and passing skills are easily the most renowned facets of Harden’s game, he has actually improved greatly as a rebounder over the past couple of years as well.

Entering Tuesday’s contest, Harden is averaging 8.0 rebounds per game on the season. However, it is critical to factor in that he was still a member of the Brooklyn Nets for much of this current season. Needless to say, the number of capable rebounding bigs in Philadelphia exceeds those in Brooklyn. Joel Embiid might be worth more on the glass than the entire Nets frontcourt combined. While Harden has largely maintained solid rebounding production since joining the 76ers, his per-game average has dipped to 7.6.

Taking his Philly-specific average into consideration, tonight’s NBA player props line of 7.5 rebounds is quite accurate. It is worth noting that Harden has only exceeded this total three times in his last nine games played. He will be hard-pressed to do so tonight from a matchup standpoint. The Bucks rank sixth in the league in rebound rate on the season. The fact that OddsShopper shows that this NBA betting props offering is juiced slightly to the under across the market only reinforces the handicap. Awesemo officially projects Harden for 7.09 boards and gives this under wager a 10% expected ROI value.


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Saddiq Bey Under 18.5 Points (-115, DraftKings) 

The Detroit Pistons got some bad news yesterday as Jerami Grant will be shut down for the remainder of the campaign with a calf injury. While Grant’s absence will leave several additional shot attempts on the table, it is hard to be convinced that Saddiq Bey will absorb the majority of them. In the last two games in which Grant played a combined total of eight minutes, Bey only attempted a very typical 11 and 10 shots, respectively.

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Taking this into consideration, there is good reason to include a bet on under 18.5 total points for Bey as part of tonight’s NBA player props portfolio, as he has the potential to go off any given night. Look no further than a 51-point outburst two weeks ago for proof. However, that performance did come against a lowly Orlando Magic team. It also saw Bey shoot a ridiculous 10-14 from 3-point range. On the season, he has connected on less than 35% of 3-point attempts and is shooting only 39.6% from the field overall. 

Tonight will see the Pistons hit the road to face a Brooklyn Nets team that is battling for playoff seeding. The Nets rank in the upper half of the league in defensive efficiency. Brooklyn also boasts a top-10 3-point defense as opponents have only hit 34.6% of 3’s against the Nets on the year. Bey’s primary offensive skillset figures to be negatively impacted in this matchup. Add in the fact that OddsShopper has one sportsbook listing this NBA betting props total a full point lower and there are a plethora of reasons to hop in on the under. Awesemo gives the play an 11% ROI value at optimal -115 odds.


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