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3 MUST-BET NBA Player Props Bets & Picks Today: Marcus Smart & Tyus Jones 3/28/22

Henry John



Free No House Advantage picks today and props for the Friday NBA DFS slate using expert projections & Awesemo's rankings tonight.

The last full week of the NBA regular season tips off tonight with a nine-game slate. Plenty remains to be decided as far as the standings and playoff seed lines are concerned. As the action heats up, bettors are advised to capitalize on the final week of regular-season NBA betting picks. While there will be opportunities in the playoffs, the NBA props menu will be diminished given the lesser volume of games. Thus, taking advantage of full cards like tonight’s down the stretch is vital. You can easily enhance your NBA player props handicapping process further by including the redesigned OddsShopper as well as NBA betting tips today. Thanks to this tremendous tool, finding the best NBA player props bets today is as simple as three quick steps: Filter, sort, bet.

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With help from OddsShopper, the following article highlights three must-bet NBA player props spanning across Monday’s games.

Best NBA Player Prop Bets & Expert Betting Picks Today

With OddsShopper, finding the best NBA player props betting odds is fast and simple. All users have to do is filter the prop selections, sort the page and find the best pick to bet. The process is extremely quick and highly effective. Try out the tool for yourself tonight with the three featured prop bets below!

Marcus Smart Over 14.5 Points (-110, DraftKings)

Coming into the day, Boston Celtics guard Marcus Smart is averaging 11.9 points per game on the season. It has been a rough shooting stretch of late for Smart, as he has failed to even crack double figures in each of his last four games played. Given these two facts, there had better be some pretty convincing rationale for betting Smart to go over 14.5 points this evening.

Bettors seeking such rationale are in luck. This is not Awesemo’s favorite scoring NBA props prediction for Monday’s slate for no reason. The crux of this NBA betting handicap is based on the fact that the Celtics will be extremely shorthanded for tonight’s game against the Toronto Raptors. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Al Horford have already been ruled out for various reasons. Boston also got some awful news regarding center Robert Williams III, who has a torn meniscus and is now out indefinitely.

Add all the absences up and you have a scenario in which Smart will join Derrick White as the only two reliable scoring options that the hottest team in the Eastern Conference will have for tonight’s contest. Furthermore, OddsShopper suggests that bettors can gain some value by targeting a -110 price that sits cheaper than what most of the NBA player props market is offering. Awesemo’s exact projection of 17.52 points comes in over three full points above the betting total. Combine the massive statistical edge with the favorable odds and the expected ROI has been determined to be 28%.

Davion Mitchell Under 17.5 Points (-108, FanDuel)

As a result of starting Sacramento Kings point guard De’Aaron Fox being sidelined by an injury, rookie Davion Mitchell has seen a massive uptick in usage and scoring of late. The former Baylor standout comes into Monday night’s contest riding a streak of three straight games scoring 20 points or more. It is certainly worth noting that it took him over 20 shots to accomplish this in two of those games. In the third, he shot an unsustainable 10-15 from the field. 

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Despite the fact that Mitchell has exceeded today’s NBA player props line of 17.5 points four times in the last five games, Awesemo favors betting the under. A huge element to consider is the fact that the Kings face the Miami Heat tonight. On the season, the Heat rank fifth in defensive efficiency, allowing only 106.1 points per 100 possessions. Miami also ranks 29th in pace factor. A slow tempo and a top-tier defense are two factors that will work heavily against Mitchell’s bid to go over his NBA props scoring total.

OddsShopper shows that bettors can greatly improve their buy-in price by using a selective approach as far as where they place this wager. Current optimal odds of -108 on Mitchell to finish under 17.5 points are as much as 17 cents cheaper than other offerings in the NBA betting market. Awesemo gives this prediction a 16% ROI at the preferred odds with an official projection for Mitchell to only score 15.78 points tonight.

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Tyus Jones Over 2.5 Rebounds (-154, BetMGM)

On the surface, any NBA player props bet in which one is required to lay -154 odds may seem like a poor option. In this case, however, there is tremendous value in playing over 2.5 rebounds for Memphis Grizzlies point guard Tyus Jones. Of course, the key factor here is the fact that Jones is starting in place of injured superstar Ja Morant. Since stepping into the increased role, Jones has exceeded the NBA betting total in three of four games. This includes a pair of four-rebound efforts in each of the Grizzlies’ last two games.

Tonight will see Memphis face a fading Golden State Warriors team that is suddenly in danger of losing the three seed in the Western Conference. Despite the Warriors’ recent struggles, they are a top-five team in terms of rebound rate this season. Number one in that stat by a wide margin is none other than the Grizzlies. With a fast pace also expected in this matchup, Jones should have plenty of opportunities to assist the cause on the glass. 

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Even though laying -154 juice is not ideal, OddsShopper shows that this price is actually up to eight cents cheaper than those at other sportsbooks. It is also worth pointing out that Jones has averaged 2.4 boards per game on the full season, with much of that coming in a reserve role. Thus, the expanded minutes easily figure to be enough to make up the half rebound needed to top the NBA player props line. Juice and all, Awesemo’s projections give this over prediction a 14% ROI value to go along with a 69% win probability. 

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