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4/9/22 MUST-BET NBA Player Props | Paul George

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There are only three primetime NBA games scheduled for tonight. Given that all 30 teams will play their regular season finales tomorrow, the majority of the league was grand Saturday off. Even so, bettors are sure to find a handful of worthwhile NBA betting picks and prop bets from the games that we do have on the card today. You can easily enhance your NBA player props handicapping process further by including the redesigned OddsShopper as well as NBA betting tips today. Thanks to this tremendous tool, finding the best NBA player props bets today is as simple as three quick steps: Filter, sort, bet.

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With help from OddsShopper, the following article highlights three must-bet NBA player props for Saturday night’s games.

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With OddsShopper, finding the best NBA player props betting odds is fast and simple. All users have to do is filter the prop selections, sort the page and find the best pick to bet. The process is extremely quick and highly effective. Try out the tool for yourself tonight with the three featured prop bets below!

Jonas Valanciunas Over 10.5 Rebounds (+110, BetMGM)

Regular readers of this NBA player props column might recall that we recommended the under on total rebounds for New Orleans Pelicans center Jonas Valanciunas just two days ago. Why the sudden switch in favor of betting the over today? First of all, that line of 12.5 was set a full two rebounds higher than tonight’s prop total of 10.5. Second, OddsShopper shows favorable plus-money odds widely available across the market. Considering the line adjustment of two full boards AND the profitable price together, we have more than enough ammo to rationalize a change in sides just 48 hours later.

Valanciunas did indeed come up short of the NBA betting total on Thursday. He finished with only eight rebounds in a game that the Pelicans dominated. As a result, J-Val only played 22 minutes. This marked the second straight low minutes game for Valanciunas with a one-game absence due to an ankle injury sandwiched in between. New Orleans may not have needed him in full against lowly Portland, but tonight’s matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies figures to be a different story.

Although neither team has much to gain as far as playoff seeding, both sides are expected to play the vast majority of available starters. Considering that the Grizzlies lead the league in Rebound Rate (53.4), Valanciunas will presumably see plenty of run as the Pels attempt to hold their own on the glass. Awesemo projects the Lithuanian to finish with exactly 11.44 rebounds tonight. Note that Valanciunas has averaged 11.5 boards per game on the season. Thus, OddsShopper is suggesting bettors can score +110 odds that he will go over a line that sits a full rebound below his typical production. Awesemo grants such a wager a healthy 24% expected ROI value.

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Tre Jones Over 6.5 Assists (-133, BetMGM)

With no shot to improve from their current status as the 10-seed in the NBA Play-In Tournament, the San Antonio Spurs will be sitting nearly all of their starting five tonight. Among those who will be in street clothes tonight, is All-Star point guard, Dejounte Murray. In actuality, this will be Murray’s fifth consecutive missed game as he continues to recover from a respiratory illness. Murray’s absence from the lineup has led to Tre Jones playing 30+ minutes in each of the last four games. From a statistical standpoint, Jones has more than delivered in his increased role.

While Jones has notably scored 14+ points in each of the last three games, he has really made his mark in the assists category. The 22-year-old has supplied no fewer than seven helpers across the last four games. Thus, he has toppled today’s NBA player props line of 6.5 assists in each of those outings. It’s clear that increased playing time means great things for Jones as far as setting up teammates. Although the cast of players he will have to pass to will be diminished this evening, Jones still figures to handle the ball plenty and garner plenty of opportunities as a distributor. 

The fact that both the Spurs and opponent, Golden State Warriors, rank among the 12 fastest-paced teams in the league should also benefit this over prediction. While OddsShopper does show that this prop is juiced to the over across the NBA betting market, Awesemo does not feel that the price should deter bettors. An exact projection of 8.00 assists for Jones comes in a whopping 1.5 above the NBA player props total. Along with a 69% win probability, optimal -133 odds still afford a solid ROI value of 20%.


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Paul George Over 21.5 Points (-105, BetMGM)

The Los Angeles Clippers may not have anything to gain in terms of seeding for the Play-In Tournament tonight, but all of the team’s starters are currently on track to play. This includes Paul George, who will be playing in only his fifth game since returning from a long-term injury. After two poor shooting performances, George’s NBA betting prop for total points tonight is set at 21.5. Considering all of the games he has played in this season, PG13 is averaging 24.4 points per contest. Thus, bettors should automatically be keyed in on the over based on the statistical discrepancy.

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While George has fallen short of the NBA player props line in each of the last two games, he successfully eclipsed it in his first two games upon returning from injury. From a matchup standpoint, it’s worth noting that the last two games came against decent or strong defensive teams. The same cannot be said about the Sacramento Kings outfit that the Clippers will tangle with tonight. The Kings rank only 27th in defensive efficiency and have allowed a whopping 112.9 points per 100 possessions. 

Another factor that cannot be ignored when it comes to this NBA props prediction is the current outlook of the betting market. According to OddsShopper, optimal -105 odds on George to exceed 21.5 points are up to 20 cents cheaper than the prices found at other sportsbooks. Taking the favorable price into consideration, Awesemo has assigned a 15% expected ROI to this over prediction. According to the projections, George is expected to score exactly 23.26 points this evening.


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