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4/22/22 MUST-BET NBA Player Props Tonight | Bam Adebayo

Henry John



It is hard to believe that it is already one full week into the NBA Playoffs! Expect plenty more twists, turns and thrilling on-court action across Friday night’s tripleheader slate. While NBA betting picks can certainly be made on the game lines themselves, there are multiple unknowns and key injuries impacting all three of tonight’s matchups. Thus, bettors would be wise to consider including player props in their betting portfolio tonight as well. You can easily enhance your NBA player props handicapping process further by including the redesigned OddsShopper as well as NBA betting tips today. Thanks to this tremendous tool, finding the best NBA player props bets today is as simple as three quick steps: Filter, sort, bet.

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With help from OddsShopper, the following article highlights three must-bet NBA player props spanning each of Friday night’s NBA Postseason matchups.

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With OddsShopper, finding the best NBA player props betting odds is fast and simple. All users have to do is filter the prop selections, sort the page and find the best pick to bet. The process is extremely quick and highly effective. Try out the tool for yourself tonight with the three featured prop bets below!

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Bam Adebayo Over 8.5 Rebounds (-110, FanDuel)

The Miami Heat may be up 2-0 in the series, but center Bam Adebayo has been a disappointment in the playoffs thus far. After averaging a double-double during the regular season, Adebayo failed to even score in double figures in each of the first two games of the series. In Game 2, Adebayo played all of 24 minutes. He totaled just nine points and four rebounds during his limited playing time.

To say that Adebayo has underachieved in the playoffs so far relative to his typical production would be an understatement. He averaged 10.1 rebounds per game over the course of the full season. In Games 1 and 2 combined, Adebayo only totaled 10 boards. The fact that the Atlanta Hawks are set to again be without starting center Clint Capela tonight due to injury really opens the door for backing Adebayo in the NBA player props market. Thanks to oddsmakers lowering his rebounding total to 8.5, bettors have the opportunity to buy low on the Heat big man as well.

In reality, Adebayo’s ability to perform better on the glass could be vital to Miami’s chances of winning Game 3. OddsShopper shows some sportsbooks listing juiced odds of various degrees on the over for his rebounding prop total. For Awesemo, the pricing on this NBA betting prediction does not carry a ton of weight. A projection for Adebayo to hit 9.97 rebounds comes in nearly 1.5 boards over the total. Thus, there is enough of a statistical edge to warrant making this over wager even if the odds were juiced to a greater extent. At the best available price of -110, Awesemo gives this over bet a 27% ROI and a 66% win probability.

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Zach LaVine Over 4.5 Rebounds (+105, BetMGM)

Chicago Bulls wing Zach LaVine provided a major impact on the boards in Game 1 of the team’s NBA Playoffs series. Despite having a rough game from a shooting standpoint, LaVine had 10 rebounds in the loss. Game 2 saw him much more proficient shooting the basketball, but he only finished with a single rebound. Given the high degree of variance LaVine has displayed in this category so far, it makes sense that the NBA player props total is set right in line with his season average ahead of Game 3.

Over the duration of the full NBA betting season, LaVine has averaged 4.6 rebounds per game. This all but matches the posted prop total for tonight’s game of 4.5. Thus, it is a bit curious as to why the odds are juiced so heavily to the under. OddsShopper shows +100 odds or better available on the over across the entire NBA player props market. Sure, the Milwaukee Bucks ranked top-five this season in rebound rate. However, the defending champions will be forging ahead without Khris Middleton. How this disrupts their rhythm and continuity remains to be seen.

Looking at a recent sample size for LaVine, Game 1 marked only the second time in his last eight games played that he managed to exceed tonight’s NBA props rebounding total. However, in four of the games where he came up short, he finished with four rebounds. Awesemo certainly believes he has a better chance of going over the prop line than +105 odds would imply. With a projection of 5.30 boards, LaVine is given a 61% chance to eclipse the betting total. At the optimal price point, this wager is given an expected ROI value of 25%.

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Mikal Bridges Under 16.5 Points (-105, BetMGM)

With Devin Booker having already been ruled out for Game 3 and probably beyond, the onus will be on other Phoenix Suns players to step up alongside Chris Paul offensively tonight. In the Suns’ Game 2 loss on Tuesday, Mikal Bridges was the only other player aside from Booker and Paul to score more than 11 points. A pair of three-pointers highlighted a 19-point effort for Bridges. That outburst combined with the loss of Booker has led to his NBA player props scoring total inflating to 16.5 ahead of Friday’s contest.

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Although the New Orleans Pelicans are far from a defensive juggernaut, the current NBA betting line is certainly lofty by Bridges’ standards. On the full season, the Philadelphia native only averaged 14.2 points per game. Bridges’ shot attempts are prone to a certain degree of fluctuation on a game-by-game basis as well. Tuesday’s playoff loss marked only the second time in his last five games played that Bridges had 10 field goal attempts or more.

Furthermore, one cannot expect another 7-11 shooting performance. As a 53.4% shooter on the year and only 36.9% from beyond the arc, Bridges’ Game 2 conversion rate is simply not sustainable over the long haul. Even with a slight buff to his projection to account for the absence of Booker, Awesemo still only pegs Bridges to score 15.52 points tonight. Although this projection is over one point above his season average, it is essentially 1.5 fewer than the 17 he would need to score to go over the NBA player props total. OddsShopper actually shows that most sportsbooks are juiced in the opposite direction, which only aids the value of this under prediction. At the optimal price of -105, the expected ROI value is determined to be 9%.

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