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4/15/22 MUST-BET NBA Player Props Tonight | Brandon Ingram

Henry John



The final two berths into the NBA Playoffs bracket will be handed out tonight as the Play-In Tournament concludes. In the early game, the Atlanta Hawks will face the Cleveland Cavaliers for the eight seed in the Eastern Conference. The nightcap out west features the New Orleans Pelicans and the Los Angeles Clippers. When it comes to betting on tonight’s doubleheader, there are plenty of worthwhile NBA player props and picks to consider.

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You can easily enhance your NBA player props handicapping process further by including the redesigned OddsShopper as well as NBA betting tips today. Thanks to this tremendous tool, finding the best NBA player props bets today is as simple as three quick steps: Filter, sort, bet.

With help from OddsShopper, the following article highlights three must-bet NBA player props spanning both of Friday night’s NBA Play-In Tournament games.

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With OddsShopper, finding the best NBA player props betting odds is fast and simple. All users have to do is filter the prop selections, sort the page and find the best pick to bet. The process is extremely quick and highly effective. Try out the tool for yourself tonight with the three featured prop bets below!

Clint Capela Under 13.5 Rebounds (+110, FanDuel)

Atlanta Hawks center Clint Capela certainly flexed his rebounding prowess in Wednesday’s contest against Charlotte. He dominated the glass to finish the game with a whopping 17 rebounds. Merely looking at a sample size of the last 10 games, Capela has achieved double-digit rebounding totals on nine occasions. When it comes to eclipsing today’s NBA player props total of 13.5 boards, however, there is a bit of a drop-off in terms of reliability. Wednesday’s Play-In Tournament game marked the fifth time over that same recent span in which Capela finished with 14 boards or more.

Personnel factors on both sides of tonight’s matchup figure to influence how one approaches this NBA betting prediction. First off, John Collins is set to remain sidelined for the Hawks just as he was on Wednesday. While this figures to bode well for Capela’s rebounding production, the fact that the Cleveland Cavaliers are set to welcome back center Jarrett Allen tonight almost certainly will have the opposite effect. In Allen, Capela will have a formidable opponent to contend with when it comes to grabbing rebounds. Allen was a huge reason why the Cavs ranked top-10 in rebound rate this season.

Pricing makes this NBA props prediction even more attractive. OddsShopper currently indicates that the odds are juiced to the over across the entire betting market. This directly contradicts the fact that Capela only averaged 11.9 rebounds per game on the season. The presence of favorable +100 odds allows the ROI value of this under prediction to get boosted up to 17%. Awesemo’s exact projection for Capela to record 12.89 rebounds also translates to a 59% win probability.

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Brandon Ingram Under 24.5 Points (-112, FanDuel)

By no means is this NBA betting prediction a knock on Brandon Ingram as a player. The urge to bet that he will score less than 24.5 points tonight is more a reflection of the NBA player props line being off than anything. Ingram was notably impressive in the Pelicans’ first NBA Play-In Tournament game on Wednesday. He scored 27 points to help power New Orleans to the win. The San Antonio team that Ingram achieved that output against is a far cry from the Clippers outfit that he and the Pelicans will face tonight, particularly when it comes to defensive capabilities.

The other key difference in opposition concerns pace. The Spurs were actually one of the three fastest teams in the NBA this season. The same cannot be said for the typical pace of the Clippers. To expand on the tempo portion of this handicap, one could argue that the greatest personnel advantage that the Pelicans have in this matchup is center Jonas Valanciunas. He dominated the Clippers on the glass across numerous regular-season meetings. If New Orleans wisely elects to play through their big man down low, this could also inhibit the overall pace of tonight’s game.

On the full season, Ingram averaged 22.7 points per game. While this is a solid scoring average, it also falls nearly two full points below tonight’s prop total. Thus, Ingram would need to exceed his typical production by over two points to achieve the bare minimum needed to go over. Awesemo’s projections only believe Ingram will score 18.34 points in this contest. This projection yields an astounding expected ROI value of 53%! With OddsShopper also showing one sportsbook listing his scoring prop a full point lower, it is hard to pass up a very reasonable -112 price on the under. 

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Norman Powell Under 2.5 Assists (+108, FanDuel)

Tuesday night’s NBA Play-In Tournament contest marked just the third game back for Norman Powell. The Los Angeles Clippers‘ top trade deadline acquisition had been out several weeks with a broken foot. While Powell has actually been incredibly efficient shooting the basketball since returning, playmaking remains a minimal part of his overall game. Since joining the Clippers, he has averaged only 2.8 assists per game. Since coming back from his injury absence, Powell has failed to go over the NBA player props line of 2.5 in all three games that he has played.

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Considering that OddsShopper shows plus-money odds available on the under, there is legitimate value on that side. Of course, the other wrinkle that one must consider ahead of tonight’s Western Conference play-in game is the fact that the Clippers will be without Paul George. While the responsibility will be on players like Powell to pick up the slack offensively, George’s absence will undoubtedly disrupt the flow of things. In addition, both Los Angeles and the opposing New Orleans Pelicans averaged below-average pace factors for the season. One could argue that possessions may be limited in this matchup.

Awesemo officially has Powell projected for 2.45 helpers in tonight’s contest. Although this offers little in terms of a statistical advantage, keep in mind that the under can be obtained at a favorable +108 price. When factoring in the advantageous odds, the expected ROI for this NBA betting prediction sits at 18%.

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