The second night of the NBA Play-In Tournament is set for Wednesday. Elimination will be the consequence of defeat in both games, including the Western Conference clash which features the San Antonio Spurs and New Orleans Pelicans. Both teams took fairly unique paths just to reach the Play-In Tournament. After acquiring CJ McCollum at the trade deadline, the Pelicans used a late-season surge to finish ninth in the conference standings. The Spurs, meanwhile, were actually sellers at the trade deadline. Some are questioning San Antonio’s motivation to actually try to claim a playoff berth. This is certainly something to keep in mind when exploring NBA betting picks and player props for the game today.
You can easily enhance your NBA player props handicapping process further by including the redesigned OddsShopper as well as NBA betting tips today. Thanks to this tremendous tool, finding the best NBA player props bets today is as simple as three quick steps: Filter, sort, bet.
Best NBA Player Prop Bets & Expert Betting Picks Today | Spurs vs. Pelicans
With OddsShopper, finding the best NBA player props betting odds is fast and simple. All users have to do is filter the prop selections, sort the page and find the best pick to bet. The process is extremely quick and highly effective. Try out the tool for yourself tonight with the three featured prop bets for tonight’s Spurs-Pelicans Play-In Tournament game below!
Devin Vassell Over 13.5 Points (+102, FanDuel)
One player that Awesemo’s projections strongly believe the NBA betting market has undervalued is Spurs wing Devin Vassell. The second-year pro assumed a more prominent role on a nightly basis following the departure of Derrick White at the trade deadline. Many felt that the former Florida State defensive stalwart had the goods to be a quality pro player. Vassell’s season average of 12.3 points per game only figures to increase next year when he is in the starting lineup from the onset.
Although tonight’s NBA player props line of 13.5 points sits over one full point above Vassell’s season average, the fact that he was not always a fixture of the Spurs’ top unit must be accounted for. With Dejounte Murray sidelined by an illness down the stretch of the regular season, Vassell closed with a flourish. He successfully topped today’s NBA props total with ease in five of his last six games played, scored at least 15 points in all five of those outings and had 18+ in four of them.
While the Pelicans deserve a ton of credit for turning around a season that saw them start out 1-12, their defense remains suspect. The Pelicans finished the regular season ranking just 20th in defensive efficiency. Given that he occupies a co-second scoring option to Murray alongside Keldon Johnson, Awesemo projects Vassell for 17.24 points in tonight’s Play-In Tournament game. This obliterates the NBA betting line and assigns a massive win probability of 71% to the over. Best of all, OddsShopper indicates that one can find a plus-money price on Vassell to go over his scoring prop. Add it all up and this wager comes in with an astounding 43% expected ROI value.
CJ McCollum Over 4.5 Assists (-140, PointsBet)
The first cue when it comes to betting McCollum to exceed 4.5 assists tonight is the discrepancy that exists in the NBA player props market. OddsShopper shows that the over/under line of 4.5 helpers is unique to a single sportsbook. All others list McCollum’s assist total one point higher at 5.5. The fact that one could make a real argument to play over the higher of the two NBA betting lines certainly suggests a great deal of value on the alternative offering.
During the regular season, McCollum averaged exactly 4.5 assists per game. Of course, he was still playing in Portland for the majority of the campaign. Upon being traded to the Pelicans, McCollum’s assist-per-game rate ballooned to 5.8. Aside from the season finale in which he only played six minutes, McCollum enters the Western Conference play-in game having dished no fewer than four helpers in every single game he has played as a member of the Pelicans. His influence on the offense was a massive reason why New Orleans even made it into the top 10 of the standings.
Considering the Spurs are a mediocre defensive team at best, McCollum should have plenty of opportunities to thread the needle to teammates tonight. The fact that Brandon Ingram is reportedly on track to play will only aid this NBA props prediction. The Pelicans will effectively have two players capable of creating their own shot which will prevent San Antonio from keying in solely on McCollum. Once again, the value of checking OddsShopper to bet over the lower prop total looms large. Despite this listing requiring one to lay -140 juice on the over, the ROI is still set at a hefty 36%. Awesemo’s exact projection for the former Lehigh star to finish with 6.61 dimes yields a must-bet win probability of 80%.
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Jaxson Hayes Over 4.5 Rebounds (-133, BetMGM)
When it comes to betting on NBA player props, Pelicans’ forward Jaxson Hayes can admittedly be difficult to trust. However, now that he is a fixture of the team’s starting lineup, his playing time is much more reliable. While Hayes has not always produced when granted plentiful minutes, he is certainly capable of exceeding tonight’s NBA betting line of 4.5 rebounds. On the full season, he averaged exactly that many boards on a per-game basis. He also only averaged 20 minutes played per contest, a mark that he exceeded with great frequency down the stretch of the regular season.
Excluding the Pelican’s regular-season finale in which all starters saw reduced or no playing time, Hayes has successfully gone over today’s NBA player props line in five of the last nine games. He is fully capable of pushing up against double-digit rebounds. He twice finished with 10+ boards over that same nine-game span. He also notably exceeded the prop total in both of the late-season matchups against the Spurs. Hayes played 28 minutes and finished with eight rebounds in a March 18th clash against San Antonio and followed it up with six boards in 29 minutes on March 26th.
Regardless of the opponent, rebounding has not been the Spurs’ strength all season. The frontcourt is limited in terms of quality depth and San Antonio ranked just 19th in terms of rebound rate. OddsShopper shows that the entire NBA betting market is juiced towards the over on Hayes’ rebounding prop. Despite the fact that -140 represents the best value, Awesemo still gives this prediction a 12% ROI. The over is determined to have a win probability of 65% as a result of pegging Hayes for exactly 5.56 boards in tonight’s matchup.
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