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Wednesday, May 11 MUST-BET NBA Player Props Tonight | Marcus Smart

Henry John



A pair of NBA Playoff Game 5 matchups are on the schedule for Wednesday evening. The early contest sets up as a pivotal swing game in the deadlocked series between the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics. Later on, the Golden State Warriors will look to close out the Memphis Grizzlies on the road and punch their ticket to the conference finals. In addition to betting on the game lines themselves, the NBA player prop bets market remains a profitable option for the playoff doubleheader today.

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Bettors can easily enhance their NBA player props handicapping process further by including the redesigned OddsShopper as well as NBA betting tips today. Thanks to this tremendous tool, finding the best NBA player props bets today is as simple as three quick steps: Filter, sort, bet.

Best NBA Player Prop Bets & Expert Betting Picks Today

Giannis Antetokounmpo O/U 13.5 Rebounds (-114, FanDuel)

Giannis Antetokounmpo has one triple-double and three double-double lines in the Eastern Conference Semifinals thus far. Monday night’s home loss saw him grab 18 rebounds, his highest output on the glass of this series. Considering the advantages in size and length that the Bucks have inside, it is no surprise that players like Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis have been destroying the Boston Celtics on the boards. With that being said, Antetokounmpo simply cannot be expected to replicate an 18-rebound performance.

Taking this a step further, the likelihood of Antetokounmpo eclipsing an NBA player props line of 13.5 boards does not figure to be great. The “Greek Freak” averaged 11.6 rebounds per game over the course of the full season. Simple math suggests that Antetokounmpo must finish a full 2.4 boards above his per-game average in order to have the minimum amount necessary to eclipse the NBA picks total. While he has surpassed his season average six times in these playoffs, he has only gone over this lofty NBA betting line four times. Only one of those performances came in this Second Round series against Boston.

As great as Antetokounmpo is and has been in these playoffs, the prudent move is to bet under this elevated Game 5 prop total. Awesemo’s projections agree with this sentiment, pegging Giannis for 12.72 rebounds in tonight’s contest. This projection translates to a win probability of 60% for the under on this NBA prop bets total. In addition, OddsShopper can help bettors easily locate -114 odds that offer up to 11 cents of value relative to other prices in the market. At the preferred odds, the expected ROI for this prediction is set at 13%.

Best NBA Player Prop Bet Today: Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 13.5 Rebounds

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Marcus Smart O/U 14.5 Points (-120, DraftKings)

Based on how Celtics point guard Marcus Smart played on Monday night, one would be hard-pressed to recall that he actually missed Game 2 of this series entirely with an injury. Smart shot 8-for-13 from the field including 2-for-3 from beyond the arc on his way to 18 points. It was easily his best game of the Eastern Conference Semifinals and also marked his second-highest scoring output of these NBA Playoffs overall. Smart also twice scored 20 points in Boston’s first-round sweep of Brooklyn. However, aside from those outings and Monday’s showing, he has not exceeded today’s NBA player props total of 14.5 points in any other playoff game.

Perhaps this should not come as a major surprise. After all, Smart only averaged 12.1 points per game over the course of the full season. Thus, the NBA betting line is requiring Smart to exceed his average scoring output by three points minimum in order for the over to cash. When it comes to matching up with the Bucks’ defense, Milwaukee is willing to give up open 3-pointers in order to protect the rim. Unless Smart manages to flip the script on how he has been shooting from distance in these playoffs, his path to eclipsing the NBA picks total is far from clear.

Given that the Celtics have numerous other offensive threats like Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, Smart’s biggest impact in Game 5 is more likely to come as a distributor than a primary scorer. OddsShopper believes that playing under 14.5 points is a solid NBA prop bets option today. OddsShopper suggests that most of the betting market agrees, as this prop is juiced slightly in that same direction. Awesemo’s projection of 13.15 points combined with the preferred price of -120 results in an 8% expected ROI value.

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Best NBA Player Prop Bet Today: Marcus Smart UNDER 14.5 Points

Tyus Jones Over 3.5 Rebounds (-128, FanDuel)

With the Memphis Grizzlies already having ruled Ja Morant out for Wednesday’s Game 5, bettors already know that Tyus Jones will be locked into plenty of playing time. Although he only averaged 2.4 rebounds per game over the course of the full season, his production from the backup point guard role is hardly applicable to tonight’s game. What does carry weight is how Jones performed down the stretch of the regular season when the Grizzlies were without Morant for a few weeks. If that regular season stretch serves as any indication, it is worth playing over the NBA player props line of 3.5 boards for Jones in Game 5.

Jones totaled four rebounds or more in four of seven games without Morant on the floor. This included a win over the same Golden State Warriors that have the Grizzlies on the brink of elimination. It is also worth noting that his playing time fluctuated a fair amount during the regular season stint in which Morant was sidelined. That is not expected to be the case in Game 5 tonight. The Warriors force the hand of their opponents by going small, meaning that Jones is quite likely to see around the same 41 minutes he played in Game 4. On Monday, he grabbed a half-dozen boards.

At the time of writing, OddsShopper does list Jones’ rebounds prop for Game 5 as being juiced to the over. However, bettors can obtain several cents of value by comparing the prices between sportsbooks. At the optimal price point of -128, OddsShopper has assigned a 17% expected ROI to this over prediction. Official projections spot Jones for just over one full rebound more than the NBA prop bets line at 4.52.

Best NBA Player Prop Bet Today: Tyus Jones OVER 3.5 Rebounds

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