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Thursday, April 28 MUST-BET NBA Player Props Tonight | Jalen Brunson

Henry John



Many sports fans are bound to be keyed in on the opening round of the NFL Draft (check out all of our NFL Draft betting picks) this evening. However, it is also a huge night of action on the hardwood. A tripleheader of Game 6 NBA Playoff matchups adorns tonight’s slate. Can the Toronto Raptors force the most unlikely of Game 7’s against the Philadelphia 76ers? Can the Phoenix Suns finally put away the pesky New Orleans Pelicans? Do the disgruntled Utah Jazz have anything left for the Dallas Mavericks? All of these questions will be answered tonight.

With three games on the docket, there are numerous NBA betting opportunities in both the game and player props markets. Bettors can easily enhance their NBA player props handicapping process further by including the redesigned OddsShopper as well as NBA betting tips today. Thanks to this tremendous tool, finding the best NBA player props bets today is as simple as three quick steps: Filter, sort, bet.

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With help from OddsShopper, the following article highlights three must-bet NBA player props spanning across Thursday night’s NBA Postseason action.

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With OddsShopper, finding the best NBA player props betting odds is fast and simple. All users have to do is filter the prop selections, sort the page and find the best pick to bet. The process is extremely quick and highly effective. Try out the tool for yourself tonight with the three featured prop bets below!

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Pascal Siakam Over 5.5 Assists (-128, FanDuel)

With Fred VanVleet officially listed as doubtful to play in Game 6, bettors can anticipate Pascal Siakam handling the basketball plenty for the Toronto Raptors again tonight. With respect to Siakam’s game alone, his improvement as a passer and playmaker has really helped him flourish throughout the second half of the season. He has had at least five assists in 11 of his last 14 games played. This includes each of the first five games of the postseason. Siakam has twice eclipsed the NBA player props line of 5.5 assists in this series, had exactly five assists in two other games and has had at least four in any game.

Even without VanVleet in the lineup, the Raptors certainly have plenty of capable scorers. The reinsertion of Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes to the lineup after he sustained his own injury in Game 1 has helped Toronto tremendously. Add in a sharpshooter like Gary Trent Jr. and an underrated scorer in O.G. Anunoby and Siakam clearly has plenty of options for who to distribute to on a given possession. Knowing that the Philadelphia 76ers will have to account for Siakam’s own scoring ability defensively could leave the door open for him to dish to open teammates often.

According to OddsShopper, the NBA betting market agrees with Awesemo that over 5.5 assists is the correct way to play this prop. The tool shows that the odds at all major sportsbooks are juiced in that direction. Despite the cheapest price option only being -128, Awesemo believes this over prediction to have a 23% ROI value. Siakam projecting for 6.94 assists tonight also results in a hefty win probability of 69%.

Cameron Johnson Over 11.5 Points (-130, PointsBet)

The development of the NBA player props market when it comes to the scoring total for Phoenix Suns wing Cameron Johnson in Game 6 is quite fascinating. At the time of writing, OddsShopper shows that all major sportsbooks have their price juiced to the over on Johnson’s points prop, however, there is also a discrepancy in the line itself. While the majority of shops have this prop set at 12.5 points, one sportsbook is still listing Johnson’s over/under at 11.5. The fact that the -130 odds on the over are essentially equivalent to the prices at books that have the total set a full point higher makes no sense whatsoever.

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The loss of Devin Booker has opened the door to increased playing time for Johnson in this NBA Playoffs series. Despite reports that Booker could return as soon as Game 6 tonight, the original two- to three-week timetable would make Game 7 much more realistic. Unfortunately, the increased minutes Johnson has garnered in Booker’s absence have failed to reliably yield increased scoring outputs. While he did score 13 points in Game 4, he actually had fewer points (eight) in both Game 3 and Game 5 without Booker in the lineup than he did in Game 1 and Game 2 with him. Johnson has provided impacts in other statistical areas, however, and should be in line to play 30+ minutes again tonight.

It is also important to consider that Johnson averaged 12.5 points per game this season while only playing 26.2 minutes per contest. He is virtually guaranteed to see more playing time than that tonight. Yet, the NBA player props total of 11.5 points comes in one full point under his season average. This line and the associated pricing make zero sense in more ways than one. Awesemo projects Johnson for 14.97 points tonight. This projection results in a great deal of confidence when it comes to betting over the prop total. Those who obtain the preferred line of 11.5 at -130 odds will earn a 25% expected ROI value.

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Jalen Brunson Over 3.5 Assists (+128, FanDuel)

For those in search of a plus-money NBA betting opportunity to round out today’s portfolio, the assists prop for Dallas Mavericks guard Jalen Brunson is worth considering. He has put the entire league on notice with his efforts offensively throughout the Mavs’ First Round series. After scoring 41 and 31 points in Game 2 and Game 3 of the series, respectively, Brunson has hardly slowed down since Luka Doncic rejoined the lineup. In addition to scoring no less than 23 points in his five playoff games so far, Brunson has also recorded at least four assists in four of those contests.

Brunson tallied five total assists in Game 1 and Game 2 before dishing a full half-dozen in Game 3. With Doncic returning to the starting lineup in Game 4, it was natural to believe that Brunson would have a drop-off in production. However, tonight’s NBA player props market may be overestimating said decline. After all, Brunson did average 4.8 dimes per game over the course of the full season. He split the difference on the prop line of 3.5 assists in Game 4 and Game 5 of this series, successfully going over the mark in Monday night’s blowout win.

Taking all of this into consideration, the fact that OddsShopper shows very favorable plus-money prices on Brunson to go over 3.5 helpers in Game 6 is somewhat surprising. He proved over the course of the season that four assists was an attainable number to reach. Add in a disgruntled opponent in the Utah Jazz and a banged-up Donovan Mitchell, who already was spouting forth no effort defensively as it was, and this over prediction seems to be worthwhile. Awesemo projects Brunson for 4.39 assists tonight, a value that produces a win probability of 64%. At +128 odds, this prop bet is determined to have a massive expected ROI of 45%.

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