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Monday, May 2 MUST-BET NBA Player Props Tonight | Mikal Bridges

Henry John

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A doubleheader of Second Round NBA Playoffs action is on deck for Monday night. The early game will feature the Philadelphia 76ers, minus MVP finalist Joel Embiid, taking on the Miami Heat. In the nightcap, the Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns will open up their conference semifinal series in The Valley of the Sun. Along with making betting picks on the game lines and totals themselves, bettors are encouraged to peruse the plethora of props available in the NBA player props market.

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Bettors can easily enhance their NBA player props handicapping process further by including the redesigned OddsShopper as well as NBA betting tips today. Thanks to this tremendous tool, finding the best NBA player props bets today is as simple as three quick steps: Filter, sort, bet.

With help from OddsShopper, the following article highlights three must-bet NBA player props for Monday night’s postseason doubleheader.

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With OddsShopper, finding the best NBA player props betting odds is fast and simple. All users have to do is filter the prop selections, sort the page and find the best pick to bet. The process is extremely quick and highly effective. Try out the tool for yourself tonight with the three featured prop bets below!

Tyrese Maxey Under 22.5 Points (-120, Caesars)

Tyrese Maxey played a key role in the Philadelphia 76ers ensuring that they did not have to sweat out a Game 7 in the first round against Toronto. He got hot from deep in the Game 6 clincher and made five 3-pointers and shot 50% from the field overall on his way to a 25-point performance. That showing drastically exceeded his contributions in most of the other games during the first-round series. It also came in a whopping 7.5 points above the 17.5 Maxey averaged on a per-game basis this season.

Of course, the injury that is casting a giant shadow over the start of the Sixers’ second-round series is that of Embiid. Without their best player available, other 76ers will need to pick up the slack offensively. Maxey is a prime candidate to do just that. However, there is a difference between scoring more than usual and surpassing one’s average by 6 points. That is the bare minimum Maxey would need to achieve to go over the NBA player props total of 22.5 points in Game 1. He would also have to do so against a Miami Heat team that ranks top-five in defensive efficiency.

It is interesting to note that OddsShopper shows the majority of the NBA betting market listing this prop a full point lower. It is clear that there is value in shopping the odds and being selective on where to place this bet. Bettors who manage to bet under the inflated scoring prop of 22.5 will obtain a 15% expected ROI at the current -120 price. Awesemo only projects Maxey to score 20.11 points in Game 1 and gives this under a win probability of 63%.

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P.J. Tucker Under 5.5 Rebounds (+110, FanDuel)

Even with the presence of a star center in Embiid, the 76ers were not a great rebounding team relative to most in the league. Thus the loss of Embiid may not necessarily be a huge blow relative to how Philadelphia performs on the glass. This is worth considering when it comes to NBA player props for Heat players as well. One that stands out ahead of Game 1 is an over/under of 5.5. boards for veteran big man P.J. Tucker.

Tucker contributed consistently in the rebounding department for Miami in the first round of the NBA postseason. He exceeded Monday’s NBA props total in three of five opening-round games and finished with at least five boards in each game of the series. Of course, Atlanta was playing without their best rebounder in Clint Capela to begin that series. On the full season, Tucker averaged 5.5 boards per game. Given that today’s NBA betting line mirrors his season average, it is hard to make sense of the fact that the odds are juiced so heavily to the over.

OddsShopper suggests that the minimum price one would have to lay for Tucker over 5.5 rebounds is -130. Consequentially, bettors can obtain plus-money odds by betting on the opposing side of this proposition. An additional element to consider is the fact that both the 76ers and Heat are two of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA. Fewer possessions and shot attempts will result in fewer rebounding opportunities for all players, Tucker included. Awesemo projects him for 5.32 rebounds , a number that is only slightly under the prop total. However, when one also factors in the optimal +110 price point, the ROI of this wager balloons to 20%.


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Mikal Bridges Under 15.5 Points (-105, DraftKings)

Phoenix Suns wing Mikal Bridges had a whale of a first round series against New Orleans. He exceeded his season-long scoring average in four of the six games, headlined by a 31-point outburst in a critical Game 5 win. Bridges rounded out the series with 18 points in the clinching victory on the road. With Devin Booker missing the middle portion of the round, to say that the Suns needed all of Bridges’ contributions would be an understatement. However, the fact that the NBA player props market has hardly adjusted Bridges’ scoring total at all, even with Booker back in the fold, is worth noting.

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Ahead of Monday’s Game 1, bettors are looking at a prop line of 15.5 points for Bridges. This NBA betting total sits over 1 point above the 14.2 points he averaged over the course of the season. While one can argue that Bridges is riding a hot hand in the postseason, multiple factors suggest that he will not be able to sustain the scoring outputs he had last round. After all, he shot 100% from 3-point range and over 65% from the field overall in Games 5 and 6. Regression as far as these percentages are concerned is not only likely but virtually guaranteed.

To expand on the likelihood of Bridges’ scoring totals regressing, one must also consider the Suns’ second round matchup. The Dallas Mavericks allowed the fewest points per game on average of any team in the league this season. They also averaged the slowest pace and were a top-10 defensive efficiency team. None of these stats are ideal for Bridges to surpass his scoring average by nearly 2 full points. OddsShopper shows that bettors can score up to ten cents of value over other listings by targeting -105 odds on the under. At this preferred price point, OddsShopper gives this a 13% expected ROI.


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