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Best NFL Bets & Player Props: Raiders vs. Chargers Week 18 Sunday Night Football | BetMGM




Awesemo's Week 18 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Raiders vs. Chargers | Week 18 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL Lineups, optimizers picks & projections

Tonight Derek Carr and the Las Vegas Raiders will host Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 18 Sunday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.

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BetMGM Week 18 NFL Best Bets: Sunday Night Football

Also be sure to check out OddsShopper’s matchups page, breaking down all the data for each game on a given slate.

Point Total: Over 49 (-110)

OddsShopper is the place to look before placing any bets. The model compares the current point spread the sportsbook offers compared to the expected point spread. The same is true for moneylines and point totals in that it compares expected to what the sportsbook offers. Las Vegas allows 25.4 points per game while the Chargers allow 26.5 points per game. When the line was at 48.5 points, the model gave this bet a 64% expected win rate and a 10% expected ROI. With the line moving to 49 points, there is still value in the bet as it is the best traditional bet to make tonight.

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Keenan Allen Receptions: Under 6.5 (-105)

OddsShopper projects Keenan Allen for 6.2 receptions.  He averages 6.67 receptions per game, but has gone under 6.5 receptions in each of his last four games. The model gives this bet a 59% expected win rate.

Bryan Edwards Receptions: Under 2.5 (-189)

Bryan Edwards is projected for 1.5 receptions according to OddsShopper. Edwards averages two receptions per game. He has had less than 2.5 receptions in eight of fifteen games played, including four of the last six games. With Darren Waller expected back, I wouldn’t be surprised him going under here. The model gives this bet a 80% expected win rate and had a 25% expected ROI when the odds were at (-179). There is still value in the bet at (-189).

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Zay Jones Receptions: Under 4.5 (-167)

Zay Jones is projected for 3.5 receptions to OddsShopper. Zay Jones has had 33 receptions in his last six games after having one in each of the previous seven games. Darren Waller is expected back and it is reasonable to expect the other receivers’ numbers to dip back down a little bit. The model gives this bet a 72% expected win rate.

Derek Carr Passing Yards: Over 265.5 (-115)

OddsShopper projects Derek Carr for 274.3 yards. Carr averages 266.63 passing yards per game. The Chargers are league average, No. 13, in pass defense this season. In Week 4, Carr passed for just 196 yards, as the Chargers at that time was playing as the top-rated pass defense in the league. The model gives this bet a 57% expected win rate, and it is one I am willing to take a stab at tonight.

Jalen Guyton Receptions: Under 1.5 (-110)

Jalen Guyton is projected for 1.3 receptions according to OddsShopper. He has caught 100% of his targets in each of his last four games despite having a 64% conversion rate on the season. The model gives this bet a 61% expected win rate and a 17% expected ROI.

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One Game Parlay (+900)

The top parlay is: Total Points over 48.5, Josh Jacobs under 64.5 rushing yards (62.4 projected),  Austin Ekeler under 59.5 rushing yards (57.8 projected), Justin Jackson under 29.5 yards rushing (26.5 projected).  If all four legs hit, it pays out nine times the wager.

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