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Best NFL Player Props and Betting Picks for Wild Card Playoff Games | Sunday, 1/16/21

Henry John



The NFL Playoffs will continue on Sunday with three games scattered across the day. The action kicks off with an NFC Wild Card matchup just after lunchtime as the 7-seed Philadelphia Eagles take on the 2-seed Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A second NFC contest occupies the late afternoon window as the 6-seed San Francisco 49ers battle the 3-seed Dallas Cowboys. The action concludes in primetime with an AFC Wild Card showdown between the 7-seed Pittsburgh Steelers face and the 2-seed Kansas City Chiefs. For bettors, Sunday’s Wild Card tripleheader presents numerous opportunities to fire on NFL player props. Make sure to include the revamped OddsShopper Tool in your handicapping process. The tool will help point you in the direction of the best NFL props and betting picks as well as the most favorable odds available in the market.

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Let’s put OddsShopper to the test and explore some of Awesemo’s favorite player props for Sunday’s NFL Wild Card Playoffs slate.

Best NFL Bets & Props | Sunday Wild Card Games

With OddsShopper, finding the best NFL betting player props is fast and simple. All users have to do is filter the prop selections, sort the page and find the best pick to bet. The process is extremely quick and highly effective. Try out the tool for yourself with the featured NFL prop bets below. A pick for each of the three Sunday Wild Card matchups is included!

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Quez Watkins Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-110, FanDuel)

In a run-heavy Philadelphia Eagles offense, second-year wideout Quez Watkins has emerged as one of the most reliable weapons for Jalen Hurts. In fact, one could very easily make the case that he is the third option in the passing game behind DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. Considering how difficult it is to run the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Hurts and the passing attack will have to do their part to at least keep the defense honest. Watkins has seen at least three targets in all but two of the Eagles’ nine games played since the start of November. He also drew five targets in the regular-season game against Tampa Bay. The former Southern Mississippi star caught three of them to finish with 44 yards.

With the Buccaneers undoubtedly set to focus their attention on covering Smith and Goedert, there is a real chance that Watkins is able to exploit some favorable matchups in Sunday’s playoff game. Furthermore, his prowess on deep routes gives him the ability to clear the NFL player props line of 25.5 yards on a single play. With a projection of exactly 39.29 receiving yards, Awesemo gives the over a 62% chance of hitting on this NFL prop bet. OddsShopper also shows the majority of sportsbooks are listing this line two yards higher at 27.5. At the preferred total and standard -110 odds, this prop has an expected ROI of 18%.

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Deebo Samuel Over 4.5 Receptions (+110, PointsBet)

Now that each of the San Francisco 49ers‘ top pass-catchers is healthy, Deebo Samuel is no longer seeing double-digit targets like he was at times earlier in the regular season. That being said, he still garnered no fewer than six targets in each of the final three weeks. In Week 18, Samuel finished with 95 yards receiving on four receptions. In a high-stakes playoff game, there’s a possibility that Jimmy Garoppolo leans heavily on his top wide receiver. While the Niners’ offensive game plan against Dallas will clearly be to run the ball early and often, Samuel should see enough passing volume to have a chance of exceeding 4.5 receptions.

One factor that will benefit Samuel’s pursuit of going over the NFL player props line is the variety of ways in which the 49ers deploy him in the offense. Bubble screens out of the backfield may not be the flashiest play in the world, but they will still count towards his reception total. OddsShopper shows that several sportsbooks are juiced to the under on this NFL prop bet. The gap in prices between the favorable +110 odds and the worst number in the market is as much as 15 cents. Awesemo’s exact projection pegs Samuel for 5.30 receptions in this NFC Wild Card Game. Considering the potential for a plus-money return, this prop is determined to have a solid 24% ROI.

Chase Claypool Under 42.5 Receiving Yards (-110, FanDuel)

Despite seeing no fewer than six targets in each of the final three games to close the regular season, Pittsburgh Steelers wideout Chase Claypool failed to top 41 receiving yards in any of those contests. That high-mark came in Pittsburgh’s blowout loss to the Kansas City Chiefs back in Week 16. OddsShopper shows the NFL betting market has his receiving prop total set on either side of that number for Sunday night’s AFC Wild Card matchup. While most shops list the line at 42.5, there is a total of 40.5 available for action. Awesemo believes there is value in betting under the higher of the two available NFL player props lines.

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While Claypool boasts a world of talent, his skillset simply does not fit well with this year’s Steelers team. The former Notre Dame star profiles as a pure outside receiver capable of winning against man coverage. However, because the Steelers’ offensive line is so bad, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has no choice but to uncork throws as quickly as he can following the snap. As a result, Diontae Johnson, tight end Pat Freiermuth and running back Najee Harris has been more consistent producers in the passing game compared to Claypool. Even if he sees several targets in Sunday’s playoff game, the short-yardage nature of most pass plays means that he will have to catch several to surpass the NFL player props total. At optimal -110 odds, Awesemo gives this under prediction an expected ROI of 9%.

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