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Best NFL Player Props & Betting Picks for Bills vs. Chiefs Divisional Playoff Game | Sunday, 1/23/21

Henry John



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The Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs is set to conclude on Sunday night with a highly-anticipated AFC clash. In a rematch of last year’s conference championship game, the 3-seed Buffalo Bills will collide with the 2-seed Kansas City Chiefs in what figures to be a raucous atmosphere at Arrowhead Stadium. When it comes to NFL betting options on tonight’s playoff action, the opportunities are endless. One of the best options for fans to consider is the NFL player props market. Make sure to include the revamped OddsShopper Tool in your handicapping process. The tool will help point you in the direction of the best NFL props and betting picks as well as the most favorable odds available in the market.

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Let’s put OddsShopper to the test and explore some of Awesemo’s favorite player props for Sunday’s Bills vs. Chiefs Divisional Round playoff matchup.

Best NFL Bets & Props | Sunday Divisional Round Playoffs

With OddsShopper, finding the best NFL betting player props is fast and simple. All users have to do is filter the prop selections, sort the page and find the best pick to bet. The process is extremely quick and highly effective. Try out the tool for yourself with the three featured NFL prop bets below.

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Devin Singletary Under 62.5 Rushing Yards (-118, BetMGM)

Former Florida Atlantic RB Devin Singletary has been the key piece in the Bills jumpstarting their rushing attack over the final month of the season. Dating back even to last season, Buffalo had virtually no consistent run game to speak of. In fact, quarterback Josh Allen stood out as the team’s top rushing threat. Singletary has helped to change that narrative over the last five games. He has seen no fewer than 12 carries in each and has topped 80 yards on the ground in four of the five contests. Over the last three games, he has been particularly impressive in averaging 4.8, 4.6 and 5.1 yards per carry, respectively.

The major knock on Singletary’s recent stats is the same underlying narrative to the Bills’ overall team success. Buffalo faced the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL this season and none of the Atlanta Falcons, New York Jets or slumping New England Patriots boasted very impressive run defenses. The Bills also didn’t need to worry about scoring a ton of points to beat any of those three teams. That won’t be the case in Sunday’s Divisional Round game against the Chiefs with plenty of scoring is expected from both sides. While Awesemo does project Singletary for 55.82 rushing yards against a mediocre Kansas City defensive front, this still comes in below the now elevated NFL player props total of 62.5. OddsShopper shows this line listed as low as 60.5 at other shops. At -118 odds, the ROI on this prediction exceeds 40%.

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Patrick Mahomes Under 25.5 Completions (-105, BetMGM)

While Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has exceeded the NFL betting line of 25.5 completions in four of the last five games, a couple of factors would seem to point towards the under on this prop bet. For starters, the Bills had the top-ranked adjusted pass defense in the league this season. While Mahomes finished with 34 completions in the regular-season showdown between the teams, keep in mind that K.C. was trailing virtually the entire game. As a result, Mahomes had to attempt a whopping 54 passes. The other factor to note is the Bills’ inability to stop the run defensively. It would not be a shock to see the Chiefs try to establish the ground game early and often and wear down the Buffalo defensive front in the process.

While a shootout is certainly possible in this AFC Divisional Round matchup, Mahomes could certainly have a great came and still come up short of 26 total completions. Awesemo’s exact projection of 24.43 is over one full completion below the NFL player props line and over 1.5 fewer than the 26 Mahomes would need to hit the over. While OddsShopper lists an identical line across all major sportsbooks, the juice fluctuates greatly on either side of the number. At the best odds of -105, bettors can score a 20% ROI to go along with a 61% win probability for the under.

Gabriel Davis Under 40.5 Receiving Yards (-105, PointsBet)

Second-year Bills wideout Gabriel Davis has been making a greater impact late in the season. In fact, he has seen no fewer than three targets in each of the last nine games. While high target totals of eight, seven and 14 in three of the last five contests failed to produce tremendous final numbers, it is clear that Josh Allen is willing to look to Davis more now than in the past. Unfortunately, the receptions and receiving yardage haven’t really come along with the targets for the former UCF star. While his final yardage numbers of 40, 39 and 41 over the last three weeks have certainly been consistent, only last week’s total was good enough to exceed tonight’s NFL player props line of 40.5.

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When it comes to handicapping Davis’ receiving prop, one cannot help but factor in the sheer volume of weapons the Bills have on offense. Davis is really only the fifth option for Allen behind Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley and tight end Dawson Knox. The blowout nature of last week’s Wild Card win over the Patriots undoubtedly inflated Davis’ snap count. OddsShopper shows that the NFL betting market appears to be in agreement with Awesemo’s lean to the under. The preferred line of 40.5 is only available at one sportsbook. Others list Davis’ prop total up to two full yards lower at 38.5. At -105 odds, Awesemo determines this under prediction to have an expected ROI of 9%.

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