Today’s slate of Major League Baseball features all 30 teams and a packed evening schedule to determine expert MLB picks and predictions. Equipped with Awesemo tools and data to highlight potential positive rewards and expected win rates, this article will filter and sort the updated betting lines at OddsShopper to address the best MLB bets today based on these focal points.
This article will seek out the best expert MLB bets today based on the potentially most profitable, according to xROI%. Utilizing the groundbreaking tools at OddsShopper to identify outstanding value with optimal returns on investment, parsing and prioritizing daily wagers is easy to filter, sort and bet. OddsShopper not only provides up-to-date odds featured across all major stateside sportsbooks but also the creation of a Prop Party Parlay, combining your choice of top picks to maximize returns.
Best MLB Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions
Padres vs. Pirates Under 7.5 Runs (-118)
The San Diego Padres (13-7) take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (8-11) with Yu Darvish on the mound against Zach Thompson. With a 6:35 p.m. ET first pitch, the weather at PNC Park forecasts a cool 60 degrees. Turning to OddsShopper the Padres are -178 moneyline favorites with a 7.4 Vegas run total while Awesemo data projects a 7.4 expected run total incorporating a -6.3% ROI for the under due to increased juice. Darvish (8-11, 2021) has begun the season with a win, a loss and two no-decision outcomes in four starts achieving a .178 average against, 23.8% strikeout rate, 1.08 WHIP, 10.7% walk rate, 0.89 home runs per nine innings and a 4.43 earned run average. Despite a losing record last season, Darvish managed decent output with a 29.2% strikeout rate, .219 average against, 1.09 WHIP, 1.52 HR/9, 3.9 FIP and a 94.5 mph fastball that has risen in velocity this season. Tonight Darvish is projected to face five lefties, three righties and one switch-hitter. Against opposite-handed hitting last season he demonstrated a 25.7% strikeout rate, .222 average against, 6.6% walk rate, 1.09 WHIP, 1.53 HR/9, 4.17 xFIP and 26.9% hard hit rate. The Pirates’ offensive efforts against right-handed pitching in 2021 managed a .236 batting average, 22.4% strikeout rate, .678 OPS, .131 ISO, 9.6% home run to fly ball rate and 85 wRC+. The San Diego bullpen fared among the league’s best with a 24.6% strikeout rate, .228 average against, 1.24 WHIP, 9% walk rate, 1.16 HR/9, 3.62 ERA and 13.2% HR/FB rate.
Thompson (3-7, 2021) is continuing where he left off last season with two losses and a no-decision in three starts. He has a combined nine strikeouts, 20 hits earned against, 12 runs earned against and seven walked batters in 10 innings pitched against the Brewers and twice the Cubs. With Miami in 2021, Thompson’s 26 games earned a 21% strikeout rate, .222 average against, 1.21 WHIP, 8.9% walk rate, 0.72 HR/9, 33.9% hard contact rate, 3.69 FIP and stranded just 68.9% of batters reaching bases. San Diego is projected for five lefties, three righties and one switch-hitter. When facing right-handed hitting last season Thompson delivered a 22.7% strikeout rate, .196 average against, 6.7% walk rate, 0.98 WHIP, 0.66 HR/9, 4.14 xFIP and 6.8% HR/FB rate. The Padres’ hitting resume against right-handed pitching last season fared a .243 batting average, 21.7% strikeout rate, .729 OPS, .166 ISO, 13.5% HR/FB rate and 99 wRC+. Pittsburgh’s bullpen established a 22.9% strikeout rate, .238 average against, 11% walk rate, 1.39 WHIP, 1.18 HR/9, 4.55 ERA and 12.3% HR/FB rate. With the pitching matchup, OddsShopper projects the under to be one of the best MLB bets today.
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Tigers vs. Dodgers Over 8.5 Total Runs (-105)
The Detroit Tigers (6-12) start an interleague series with the Los Angeles Dodgers (12-6), and southpaw Tyler Alexander will square off against fellow lefty Tyler Anderson. With a first pitch scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET, the weather at Dodger Stadium forecasts a calm 67 degrees. Looking back at OddsShopper the Dodgers are heavy -225 moneyline favorites with an 8.5 Vegas run total and Awesemo data projects an 8.9 expected run total coupled with a 4.9% return on investment for the over. Alexander (2-4, 2021) has had a rougher start to the year with two losses and a no-decision outcome in three starts combining for eight strikeouts, 14 hits earned against, eight runs earned against and three walked batters in 10 innings pitched against the Rockies, Yankees and Red Sox. In 41 games with Detroit last season, Alexander produced a 19.3% strikeout rate, .253 average against, 6.2% walk rate, 1.26 WHIP, 1.35 HR/9, 4.39 xFIP, 3.81 ERA and 90.4 mph fastball now decreased in velocity this season. Alexander will face five righties and four left-handed hitters. When pit against right-handed hitting last season, Alexander managed a 19% strikeout rate, .272 average against, 5.7% walk rate, 1.32 WHIP, 1.53 HR/9, 4.85 xFIP, 39.5% hard contact and 12% HR/FB rate. The Dodgers’ hitting prowess remains daunting following last season’s .243 batting average, 22.3% strikeout rate, .757 ISO, .196 ISO, 16.8% HR/FB rate and 104 wRC+ against southpaw pitching. Detroit’s bullpen established a 22.4% strikeout rate, .249 average against, 11% walk rate, 1.45 WHIP, 1.17 HR/9, 4.5 ERA and 12.4% HR/FB rate in 2021.
Anderson (7-11, 2021) has fared admirably as a starter and out of the bullpen with two no-decisions and a win in three games (one start) achieving a combined 12 strikeouts, eight hits against, four earned runs against and three walked batters in 12 2/3 innings pitched against the Padres, Reds and Rockies. Last year in Pittsburgh and Seattle, Anderson was not at his best with a 19.1% strikeout rate, .256 average against, 5.4% walk rate, 1.25 WHIP, 1.46 HR/9, 4.37 FIP and 33% hard contact. Anderson is projected to face six righties and three switch-hitters. Facing opposite-handed hitting last season, Anderson managed a 20.4% strikeout rate, .261 average against, 5.5% walk rate, 1.23 WHIP, 1.71 HR/9, 4.64 FIP and 14% HR/FB rate. Detroit’s offensive efforts against left-handed pitching last season manufactured a .260 batting average, 24.3% strikeout rate, .732 OPS, .152 ISO, 100 wRC+ and 13.2% HR/FB rate. The Dodger bullpen remains among the league’s finest since achieving a 25.5% strikeout rate, .202 average against, 10.5% walk rate, 1.19 WHIP, 0.89 HR/9, 3.16 ERA and 27.4% hard contact surrendered. Considering the starting pitchers, OddsShopper projects a positive return on the over.
More Quick MLB Picks & Predictions Today
- Red Sox vs. Orioles Under (+100), 5.3% xROI
- Los Angeles Angels Moneyline (+110), 8.1% xROI
- Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals Over (-120), 13.1% xROI
- Twins vs. Rays Over (-110), 7.4% xROI
- Cincinnati Reds Moneyline (+110), 5.7% xROI
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