Following an exciting weekend return to Major League Baseball, we turn the page to our first full week of MLB action. MLB Monday has 12 games, in total including an early set of four matchups, followed by a late-afternoon affair in Red Sox – Tigers, then wrapping up the day with a seven-game itinerary. With a spread-out day to diversify wagers with the help of Awesemo and OddsShopper, we’ll navigate the numbers signified by our expert MLB picks and predictions to home in on the best MLB bets today.
Each day, this article will seek out the best expert MLB bets today based on the potentially most profitable, according to xROI%. Utilizing the groundbreaking tools at OddsShopper to identify outstanding value with optimal returns on investment, parsing and prioritizing daily wagers is easy to filter, sort and bet. OddsShopper not only provides up-to-date odds featured across all major stateside sportsbooks but also the creation of a Prop Party Parlay, combining your choice of top picks to maximize returns.
Best MLB Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions
Guardians vs. Royals Under 9 Total Runs (-120)
On the heels of Sunday’s 20-run onslaught at Kauffman Stadium, the Cleveland Guardians (1-2) looks to secure the series tie in the fourth game of their opening road stand against the Kansas City Royals (2-1). The Guardians managed 17 runs on Sunday, though a stiffer opponent in Carlos Hernandez may mitigate their scoring today. On the mound for Cleveland, Aaron Civale looks to put a cap on the Royals from stealing the series victory. Weather at Kaufmann Stadium forecasts a cloudy 61 degrees with 7 mph winds from the east, including 8 mph wind gusts and mild humidity and a 16% chance of precipitation. The offseason for the Guardians included re-signing their flagship third baseman Jose Ramirez and the addition of shortstop Amed Rosario. The Royals managed to add right-handed veteran Zack Greinke and outfielder Michael A. Taylor.
The Royals are slight favorites on the moneyline at -110 to Cleveland’s -102, with Kansas City projected for a 55% xWin. The total opened at 8.5 runs and since pushed to nine runs, and the under has a projected return on investment of 8.2% on -120 odds on OddsShopper. In 2021 Civale (12-5) produced his best season by a mile, including a 91.5 mph fastball up slightly from 2020, a 19.9% strikeout rate, 1.12 WHIP, .233 average against and 3.84 ERA. However, his 1.66 home runs per nine innings need improvement. Civale is due to face a Royals order of five righties, two lefties and two switch-hitters. Civale struggled against righties at times last year, allowing 1.78 HR/9, but the Cleveland bullpen was one of the more resilient on the mound in 2021, producing a 25.6% strikeout rate, 3.62 ERA and stranding a league-best 77.2% of hitters reaching bases. Plus, the Royals offense had a dismal 86 wRC+ and 10.3% HR/FB rate (third lowest) last season.
Hernandez averaged an impressive 97.2 mph on his fastball, up more than 1 mph from 2020, and he had a 20.7% strikeout rate and 1.28 WHIP. He is slated to face a Guardians hitting order of five righties, three lefties, and one switch-hitter. Hernandez performed around his season averages against righties last year, and the Royals bullpen managed a 23.4% strikeout rate, 1.09 HR/9, 1.37 WHIP and 4.22 ERA. Cleveland’s offense was bottom third against righties, producing a 23.9% strikeout rate and 90 wRC+. With cooler weather and diminished humidity, the pitching matchup between Civale and Hernandez has its question marks. However, a run total of nine between two offenses that struggled in 2021 makes the under one of the best MLB bets today.
Fellow betting expert Mark Kieffer goes over the best MLB prop bets today, which includes a home run prediction for Kansas City Royals slugger Salvador Perez. Use OddsShopper to find the best betting odds and check out the MLB betting page for all of the rest our free MLB betting picks today.
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Giants vs. Padres Under 8.5 Runs (-115)
Alex Wood is on the mound for the Giants against the Diego Padres (3-1). It projects to be windy, with 20 mph winds and gusts of 51 mph, 51% humidity and a 16% chance of precipitation. Both the Giants and Padres won their opening series, though Nick Martinez taking the mound for San Diego is an area of interest, as he hasn’t pitched a game since 2017.
OddsShopper gives a -145 moneyline favorite a projected 53% xWin and a 15.3% return on investment, with a projected total of 7.5 runs. Wood is coming off of one of his best seasons, with a 91.8 mph sinker curveball at its highest velocity since 2017, a career-best 26% strikeout rate, 1.18 WHIP and 0.91 HR/9. Wood is scheduled to face a heavy order of six right-handed hitters, two lefties, and one switch-hitter, and he had a 27.3% strikeout rate, 1.16 WHIP and 3.95 ERA against righties last year. The Giants bullpen was every bit as remarkable last season, and San Diego struggled against lefties, with a 21.4% strikeout rate and 94 wRC+.
San Diego’s assigned start turns some heads, as Martinez has not pitched in some time. In his last season with the Rangers, Martinez started 18 games and had a 14% strikeout rate, .277 average against, 2.10 HR/9 and 1.37 WHIP. Martinez is due to face a balanced Giants attack of five right-handed and four lefty hitters, and he has even splits with a 14% strikeout rate and 2.39 HR/9 to righties and a .284 average and 1.56 WHIP against lefties. The Padres bullpen may be a saving grace, as they produced 24.6% strikeout rate, 1.24 WHIP and 3.62 ERA, though a 13.2% HR/FB rate is less appealing. The Giants had a .250 batting average, 110 wRC+ and 15.4% HR/FB rate against righties in 2021.
Despite the elevated moneyline juice at -143, the Giants offense remains a force to be reckoned with, and they’ve somehow further improved upon their pitching staff in the offseason. Facing a question mark to take the mound on Monday for the Padres, the under on tonight’s Giants – Padres matchup is one of the best MLB bets today.
More Quick MLB Picks & Predictions Today
- Nationals vs. Braves Under (-120), 11.9% xROI
- Mets vs. Phillies Under (-110), 10.5% xROI
- Blue Jays vs. Yankees Under (-110), 8.1% xROI
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