This week kicks off with an 11-game Major League Baseball Monday including nine beginning after 7:05 p.m. ET. With potential rain impacting a number of matchups across the schedule, make sure to check in on forecast updates across the league when making expert MLB picks and predictions. Using the industry pioneered Awesemo tools and data, this article will home in on Monday’s best MLB bets today.
Each day, this article will seek out the best expert MLB bets today based on the potentially most profitable, according to xROI%. Utilizing the groundbreaking tools at OddsShopper to identify outstanding value with optimal returns on investment, parsing and prioritizing daily wagers is easy to filter, sort and bet. OddsShopper not only provides up-to-date odds featured across all major stateside sportsbooks but also the creation of a Prop Party Parlay, combining your choice of top picks to maximize returns.
Best MLB Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions
Pirates at Brewers Under 8.5 Total Runs (-105)
The Pittsburgh Pirates (5-4) hit the road for a seven-game road trip beginning at American Family Field with Zach Thompson on the mound to face Eric Lauer and the Milwaukee Brewers. On OddsShopper Milwaukee remains a heavy -170 moneyline favorite with a Vegas run total of 8.5 and projected run total of 8.2 runs favoring a 1.9% return on investment for the under. Thompson (3-7, 2021) began his new stint in Pittsburgh with a no-decision in four innings pitched against the Cubs earning five hits against, one batter walked, three strikeouts and two runs against. Previously with the Marlins, Thompson managed a 92.3 mph fastball that is now up slightly from last year, .222 average against, 21% strikeout rate, 0.72 home runs per nine innings, 1.21 WHIP, 3.24 earned run average and 8.9% walk rate. Thompson will face five lefties and four right-handed hitters. Facing left-handed bats last year, Thompson produced a .262 average against, 19.1% strikeout rate, 1.49 WHIP, 0.79 HR/9, 4.28 FIP and 7.3% home run to fly ball rate, with greater results against fellow righties. The Brewers’ offense facing right-handed pitching last season demonstrated a .234 batting average, 24% strikeout rate, .716 OPS, .311 wOBA and 92 wRC+. The Pirates bullpen in 2021 managed a .238 average against, 22.9% strikeout rate, 1.39 WHIP, 1.18 HR/9, 4.55 ERA and 12.3% HR/FB rate.
The left-handed Lauer (7-5, 2021) started the season in a similar fashion as Thompson’s first outing earning three hits against, two batters walked, five strikeouts and three runs against in 4 1/3 innings pitched against Baltimore. Last season Lauer manufactured a 92.6 mph fastball now up in velocity this year, .211 average against, 23.9% strikeout rate, 1.14 WHIP, 8.4% walk rate, 1.21 HR/9 and 3.19 ERA. The Pirates are projected to roll out six righties, two switch hitters and one lefty. Facing opposite-handed hitters last year, Lauer earned a .211 average against, 25.8% strikeout rate, 1.06 WHIP, 7% walk rate, 1.48 HR/9, 4.07 xFIP and stranded 80.8% of batters reaching bases. Pittsburgh’s offensive resume against left-handed pitching in 2021 produced a .236 batting average, 21.8% strikeout rate, .660 OPS, .288 wOBA and dismal 78 wRC+. The Milwaukee bullpen delivered a 28.1% strikeout rate, .223 average against, 1.39 HR/9, 1.3 WHIP, 10.7% walk rate, 4.02 ERA and 15.9% HR/FB rate last season. Though Pittsburgh has produced better offense thus far in 2022 with a .711 OPS and .266 batting average, supporting Awesemo data in tandem with a pair of resilient starting pitchers makes the under in Pirates vs. Brewers one of Monday’s best MLB bets today.
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Angels vs. Astros Over 9 Total Runs (-110)
The Los Angeles Angels (6-4) send Michael Lorenzen to the mound to face off with Luis Garcia and the Houston Astros hosting the first homestand this season. At OddsShopper the Astros are -160 moneyline favorites alongside an 8.9 Vegas run total with 9.4 projected runs inclusive of an 8.4% return on investment for the over. Lorenzen (1-2, 2021) started the season admirably in six innings pitched against Miami earning two hits against, seven strikeouts, no walked batters and one run against. Last season in Cincinnati, Lorenzen produced a 16.8% strikeout rate, .236 average against, 1.38 WHIP, 0.62 HR/9, 11.2% walk rate and 4.98 SIERA. The Astros will have six righties and three left-handed hitters. Facing fellow righties last season, Lorenzen managed a 21.2% strikeout rate, .261 average against, 9.6% walk rate, 1.42 WHIP, 4.31 xFIP and stranded 83.3% of batters reaching bases. Houston’s offensive demonstration against right-handed pitching last season was electric to the tune of a .266 batting average, 20% strikeout rate, .781 OPS and league-best 116 wRC+. The Angels’ bullpen as of last season engineered a .245 average against, 23.5 strikeout rate, 1.4 WHIP, 1.07 HR/9, 4.59 ERA and stranded just 69.6% of batters reaching bases.
Garcia (11-8, 2021) earned a no-decision in his first start this season earning two hits against, two walked batters, one strikeout and no runs against in four innings pitched against Arizona. In 2021, Garcia produced a .229 average against, 26.4% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate, 1.1 HR/9, 3.48 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. The Angels will have four righties, four lefties and one switch-hitter. With Garcia’s splits favored against right-handed hitting, when facing lefties he managed a .282 average against, 23.7% strikeout rate, 1.61 HR/9, 1.46 WHIP, 16.9% HR/FB rate and 4.55 FIP. The Angels hitting against right-handed pitching earned a .243 batting average, 24.1% strikeout rate, .706 OPS, .304 wOBA, 91 wRC+ and 12.3% HR/FB rate. Houston’s bullpen was among the league’s best relievers with a .227 average against, 25.7% strikeout rate, 1.4 WHIP, 1.07 HR/9, 13.7% HR/FB rate and 4.06 ERA. With a Houston offense due for a breakout performance in time for their season home opener, the Awesemo data projections extending the largest return on investment to start the week makes the run total over in Houston one of the best MLB bets today.
More Quick MLB Picks & Predictions Today
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- Phillies Moneyline (-110), 2.9% xROI
- Diamondbacks Moneyline (+120), 2.3% xROI
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