The week begins with Major League Baseball delivering eight games to select expert MLB picks and predictions, six of which begin this evening. Among the earlier action rain is blanketing a matchup in St. Louis which may be postponed. Utilizing the best Awesemo tools and data to highlight potential positive rewards and expected win rates, this article will filter and sort the updated betting lines at OddsShopper to address the best MLB bets today based on these focal points.
This article will seek out the best expert MLB bets today based on the potentially most profitable, according to xROI%. Utilizing the groundbreaking tools at OddsShopper to identify outstanding value with optimal returns on investment, parsing and prioritizing daily wagers is easy to filter, sort and bet. OddsShopper not only provides up-to-date odds featured across all major stateside sportsbooks but also the creation of a Prop Party Parlay, combining your choice of top picks to maximize returns.
Best MLB Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions
Angels vs. White Sox Over 7.5 Runs (-102)
The Los Angeles Angels (15-8) take on the Chicago White Sox (8-13) with southpaw Patrick Sandoval on the mound against right-handed ace Dylan Cease. With a 2:10 p.m. ET first pitch, weather at Guaranteed Rate Field forecasts 56 degrees with 51% humidity. Turning to OddsShopper the White Sox remain -130 moneyline favorites with a 7.5 Vegas run total while Awesemo data projects a 7.8 expected run total including a 1.6% return on investment for the over. Sandoval (3-6, 2021) has had a decent start to the season with a win and two no-decisions in three starts, managing a combined 20 strikeouts, nine hits earned against, six walked batters and no runs earned in 15 innings pitched against the Guardians, Astros and Marlins. With the Angels last season Sandoval demonstrated a 25.9% strikeout rate, .214 average against, 9.9% walk rate, 1.21 WHIP, 1.14 home runs per nine innings, 4.03 FIP, 15.9% home run to fly ball rate and 93.3 mph fastball that is down the slightest this year. Today Sandoval is projected to face six righties, one lefty and two switch-hitters. Facing opposite-handed plate opposition Sandoval delivered a 25.3% strikeout rate, .241 average against, 11.9% walk rate, 1.45 WHIP, 1.06 HR/9, 4.08 xFIP, 13.7% HR/FB rate and stranded 84.2% of batters reaching bases. The White Sox hitting efforts against southpaw pitching produced a .261 batting average, 24% strikeout rate, .775 OPS, .177 ISO, 15.7% HR/FB rate and 113 wRC+ last season. The Angels bullpen relief in 2021 managed a .245 average against, 23.5% strikeout rate, 10.3% walk rate, 1.4 WHIP, 1.07 HR/9, 4.59 earned run average and 12.1% HR/FB rate.
Cease (13-7, 2021) has mostly continued where he left off from last year with two wins, a loss, and a no-decision outcome in four starts combining for a .195 average against, 30.4% strikeout rate, 10.9% walk rate, 1.18 WHIP, 0.41 HR/9 and 2.5 FIP. In 2021, Cease manufactured a dominant 31.9% strikeout rate, .220 average against, 9.6% walk rate, 1.25 WHIP, 1.09 HR/9, 3.41 FIP, 11.3% HR/FB rate and 38.5% hard contact rate. This afternoon Cease will face five righties and four left-handed hitters. When tasked against same-handed hitting in 2021, Cease delivered a 31.5% strikeout rate, .220 average against, 1.28 WHIP, 10.6% walk rate, 0.97 HR/9, 3.95 FIP and 34.1% hard contact rate. The Angels’ offensive against right-handed pitching last season achieved a .243 batting average, 24.1% strikeout rate, .706 OPS, .156 ISO, 91 wRC+, and 12.3% HR/FB rate. In spite of solid pitching in this matchup, OddsShopper projects the over to be one of the best MLB bets today.
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Twins vs. Orioles Over 7.5 Total Runs (-104)
The Minnesota Twins (13-9) visit the Baltimore Orioles (8-14) with righty Chris Paddack starting against Tyler Wells. With a first pitch scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET, the weather at Oriole Park forecasts a nearly perfect 74 degrees with 40% humidity. Looking back to OddsShopper the Twins are -145 moneyline favorites with a 7.5 Vegas run total while Awesemo data projects a 7.9 expected run total including a 4.5% return on investment for the over. Paddack (7-7, 2021) is off to a slow start this season with two losses and a no-decision outcome combining for 13 strikeouts, 16 hits against, one walked batter and six earned runs against in 14 2/3 innings pitched against the Tigers, Royals and Dodgers. Last year Paddack produced a decent 21.6% strikeout rate, .264 average against, 4.8% walk rate, 1.26 WHIP, 1.25 HR/9, 3.78 FIP, 42.7% hard contact rate and 94.9 mph fastball now down in velocity this season. Tonight Paddack is projected to face six righties, two lefties and one switch-hitter. Facing right-handed hitting in 2021, Paddack delivered a troubling .325 average against, 22.8% strikeout rate, 1.25 WHIP, 3.9% walk rate, 1.79 HR/9, 4.28 FIP and 16.9% HR/FB rate. The Baltimore offensive resume against right-handed pitching was hardly great last season, churning a .228 batting average, 24.9% strikeout rate, .682 OPS, .156 ISO, 85 wRC+ and 12% HR/FB rate. Minnesota’s bullpen relievers managed a 23.8% strikeout rate, .238 average against, 9.3% walk rate, 1.31 WHIP, 1.33 HR/9, 4.39 ERA and 14.4% HR/FB rate.
Wells (2-3, 2021) started the season with two losses and two no-decisions in four starts combining for a 17.5% strikeout rate, .269 average against, 7% walk rate, 1.38 WHIP, 2.08 HR/9 and 5.7 FIP. Last season Wells delivered a 29% strikeout rate, .190 average against, 5.4% walk rate, 0.91 WHIP, 1.42 HR/9, 4.11 ERA and 41.1% hard contact rate. Wells is projected to face order of five righties, three lefties and one switch-hitter tonight. Wells’ track record against right-handed hitting has demonstrated a 23.5% strikeout rate, .224 average against, 1.08 WHIP, 5.5% walk rate, 2.03 HR/9, 4.89 FIP, 14.5% HR/FB rate and 34.9% hard contact. The Twins’ offense when facing right-handed pitching has effectively produced a .240 batting average, 23.1% strikeout rate, .744 OPS, .188 ISO, 102 wRC+ and 15.5% HR/FB rate. The Orioles bullpen from 2021 was far from relieving with a 21.5% strikeout rate, .257 average against, 1.46 WHIP, 1.47 HR/9, 10% walk rate, 5.7 ERA and 14.2% HR/FB rate. OddsShopper projects a positive return on over 7.5 runs, and this is one of the best MLB bets today.
More Quick MLB Picks & Predictions Today
- Minnesota Twins Moneyline (-145), 0.9% xROI
- Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline (+140), 13.2% xROI
- Royals vs. Cardinals Over (-120), 7.2% xROI
- Los Angeles Angels Moneyline (+110), 3.9% xROI
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