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Best MLB Bets Today with HUGE ROI Thursday 4/14/22




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Today’s Major League Baseball lineup features 11 games. The weather forecast looks good across the schedule, so it is the perfect time to utilize Awesemo‘s tools and data without limitation from the elements. Sorting through the updated betting lines at OddsShopper, this article will apply expert MLB picks and predictions to determine the most rewarding of the best MLB bets today.

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Each day, this article will seek out the best expert MLB bets today based on the potentially most profitable, according to xROI%. Utilizing the groundbreaking tools at OddsShopper to identify outstanding value with optimal returns on investment, parsing and prioritizing daily wagers is easy to filter, sort and bet. OddsShopper not only provides up-to-date odds featured across all major stateside sportsbooks but also the creation of a Prop Party Parlay, combining your choice of top picks to maximize returns.

Best MLB Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Cardinals vs. Brewers Under 8 Total Runs (-106)

The National League Central showcases a pitching duel between two of the best in the division as Adam Wainwright draws the road start for the St. Louis Cardinals (3-1) against the rival Milwaukee Brewers (3-3), who assign Brandon Woodruff to his second start following a forgettable opener. First pitch will be at 5:14 p.m. ET at American Family Field on this chilly 49-degree night in Milwaukee. OddsShopper shows the Brewers as -140 moneyline favorites with a Vegas combined run total of eight runs with a projected 7.5 run total and 7.1% ROI for the under. Wainwright (17-7, 2021) began the season remarkably in his first start allowing five hits, six strikeouts and no runs earned in six innings against Pittsburgh. Last season, Wainwright was at his best producing a 21% strikeout rate, .218 average against, 0.92 home runs per nine innings, 1.06 WHIP, 6% walk rate, 3.05 earned run average and 3.66 FIP. The Brewers will have five left-handed hitters and four righties against Wainwright. When facing left-handed opposition last season, Wainwright achieved a 20.1% strikeout rate, 7.37 strikeouts per nine innings, .229 average against, 1.11 WHIP, 0.86 HR/9 and 6.1% walk rate. Milwaukee’s offensive resume against right-handed pitching in 2021 managed a .234 batting average, 24% strikeout rate, .311 wOBA, 92 wRC+ and 14% home run to fly ball rate. The relief of the Cardinals’ bullpen produced a 23% strikeout rate, .219 average against, 0.79 HR/9, 3.97 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.

Woodruff (9-10, 2021) was dealt bad luck by record with little testimony to his production as he turned in a 29.8% strikeout rate, .198 average against, 0.96 WHIP, 6.1% walk rate and stranded 81.4% of hitters reaching bases last season. The Cardinals are expected to include six right-handed hitters, one lefty and two switch-hitters in their batting order. When facing right-handed-hitting last season, Woodruff manufactured a 28.7% strikeout rate, .219 average against, 0.82 HR/9, 4.9% walk rate and 0.98 WHIP. St. Louis’ results on offense against right-handed pitching in 2021 produced similarly to Milwaukee’s with a .240 batting average, 22.2% strikeout rate, .305 wOBA, 11.9% HR/FB rate and 92 wRC+. Milwaukee’s bullpen secured a league-best 28.1% strikeout rate, .223 average against, 4.02 ERA and 3.7 SIERA, though a 15.9% HR/FB rate draws question. Considering noteworthy pitching merits on full display with two offenses seeking to improve upon last season’s mediocrity, the run total under for this Cardinals vs. Brewers matchup is one of Thursday’s best MLB bets today.

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Braves vs. Padres Under 8 Total Runs (-120)

The World Champion Atlanta Braves (3-4) look to get back to a .500 record early on, handing veteran Charlie Morton Thursday’s start as they head to Petco Park to battle Joe Musgrove and the San Diego Padres (4-3). With an 8:10 pm ET first pitch, the weather at Petco forecasts a mostly sunny 62 degrees and no chance of rain. Pivoting to OddsShopper, the Padres are listed as -110 moneyline favorites with a 7.6 Vegas run total now sitting at eight runs, a projected 7.5 runs and a 0.1% return on investment for the under. Morton (14-6, 2021) is coming off one of his finest seasons, where he earned a 28.6% strikeout rate, .200 average against, 1.04 WHIP, 0.78 HR/9 and a 7.7% walk rate. The Padres will have four lefties, four righties and one switch-hitter. Morton was dominant against both sides of the plate but slightly more against righties, with a 25.1% strikeout rate, 1.15 WHIP and .221 average against (32.4%, 0.94 WHIP and .183 average against lefties), though hard to scoff at by any measure with a sub 0.84 HR/9 against both dexterities. When facing right-handed pitching last season, the Padres managed a .243 batting average, 21.7% strikeout rate, .314 wOBA, 99 wRC+ and 13.5% HR/FB rate. Atlanta’s bullpen has improved already in 2022, producing a 23.4% strikeout rate, .234 average against, 1.1 HR/9, 1.32 WHIP, 3.97 ERA and 11.6% HR/FB rate.

Musgrove (11-9, 2021) draws his second start this season following a no-decision in his road opener against the Diamondbacks. In addition to a no-hitter, last season Musgrove engineered a 27.1% strikeout rate, .210 average against, 1.08 WHIP, 1.09 HR/9, 7.2% walk rate and 3.18 ERA. Musgrove will face five righties, three lefties and one switch-hitter. Facing right-handed opposition in 2021, Musgrove solidified a 28.2% strikeout rate, .194 average against, 0.99 WHIP, 0.80 HR/9, 7.2% walk rate and stranded 77.8% of batters reaching bases. Atlanta’s offense battled right-handed pitching last season with a .245 batting average, 24.6% strikeout rate, .325 wOBA, 100 wRC+ and 16.3% HR/FB rate. The Padres’ bullpen was among the best last season, producing a .228 average against, 24.6% strikeout rate, 1.16 HR/9, 1.24 WHIP, 3.62 ERA and 13.2% HR/FB rate. With park factors also in favor of both pitching staffs in the league’s top echelon, the run total under featured in San Diego projects another of the best MLB bets today.

Use OddsShopper to find the best betting odds and check out the MLB betting page for all of the rest of our free MLB betting picks today.

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More Quick MLB Picks & Predictions Today

  • Chicago Cubs Moneyline (+105), 2.6% xROI
  • Nationals vs. Pirates Under (-115), 1.7% xROI
  • Reds vs. Dodgers Over (-105), 5.7% xROI

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Once a man of 12-team teaser parlays and an abundance of season-long fantasy leagues, Chris "TopherSquints" Giordani gradually honed his fascination for sports and plus-money wagers toward Daily Fantasy Sports. A homegrown Awesemo student from the early stages of the site's inception, he became infatuated with the contrarian DFS mindset and eventually combined his passion for writing with Daily Fantasy at the Sports Gambling Podcast's website blog. Currently, Chris Giordani resides in Orange County, California, enjoys binging on stand-up comedy, and long strolls through the DraftKings lobby.

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