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Best MLB Bets Today with HUGE ROI Thursday 4/21/22




Thursday’s offering of Major League Baseball serves up a front-loaded itinerary with four of today’s 10 total games kicking off the day at 1:10 p.m. ET. This article will determine the expert MLB picks and predictions utilizing the widened arsenal of Awesemo tools and data. Thanks to the updated betting lines and optimal unique tools inclusive at OddsShopper this will narrow down the best MLB bets today.

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This article will seek out the best expert MLB bets today based on the potentially most profitable, according to xROI%. Utilizing the groundbreaking tools at OddsShopper to identify outstanding value with optimal returns on investment, parsing and prioritizing daily wagers is easy to filter, sort and bet. OddsShopper not only provides up-to-date odds featured across all major stateside sportsbooks but also the creation of a Prop Party Parlay, combining your choice of top picks to maximize returns.

Best MLB Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Under 9 Total Runs (-105)

The Toronto Blue Jays (7-5) look to steal an American East rubber match on the road with Kevin Gausman taking on Tanner Houck and the Boston Red Sox (6-6). Provided 1:10 p.m. ET first pitch, the weather at Fenway Park forecasts a cool yet sunny 55 degrees. Looking to OddsShopper the Blue Jays are slight -108 moneyline favorites with an 8.8 Vegas run total while Awesemo data projects an 8.2 expected run total including a 13.1% return on investment for the under. Gausman (14-6, 2021) has yet to get into the win column since joining Toronto following a loss and no decision outcome earning a combined 14 hits allowed, five runs earned against, no walks and 14 strikeouts in 10 2/3 innings pitched against the Rangers and Yankees. Last season Gausman managed one of his best seasons to date with the Giants throwing a 29.3% strikeout rate, .208 average against, 1.04 WHIP, 0.94 home runs per nine innings, 6.5% walk rate, 3.00 FIP, 11.3% home run to fly ball rate and 2.81 ERA. Gausman will face six righties and three left-handed hitters. Gausman’s plate splits were fairly static last season while facing fellow righties. He slung a 29.2% strikeout rate, .206 average against, 1.01 WHIP, 1.11 HR/9, 6.1% walk rate and 3.3 xFIP, though a 13.5% HR/FB could use an adjustment. Facing right-handed pitching in 2021 the Red Sox bats managed a .260 batting average, .788 OPS, .200 ISO, 109 wRC+ and 14.5% HR/FB rate. Toronto’s bullpen relievers delivered a 24.6% strikeout rate, .228 average against, 1.28 WHIP, 1.3 HR/9, 9.7% walk rate, 4.08 ERA and 14.8% HR/FB rate.

Houck (1-5, 2021) began the season with a win and no decision following a combined eight hits against, three runs earned, six walked batters and seven strikeouts in nine innings pitched against the Twins and Yankees. Houck’s 2021 record did not do him justice in contrast to his solid output as he delivered a 30.5% strikeout rate, .221 average against, 1.13 WHIP, 0.52 HR/9, 7.4% walk rate, 2.58 FIP, 3.52 ERA and 7.4% HR/FB rate. Houck will face six righties and three left-handed hitters. Facing fellow right-handed hitters last season Houck demonstrated a staggering 36.5% strikeout rate, .215 average against, 1.06 WHIP, 0.49 HR/9, 6.8% walk rate, 2.00 FIP and 6.5% HR/FB rate. Toronto’s hitting against right-handed pitching in 2021 produced a .264 batting average, .793 OPS, .202 ISO, 111 wRC+ and 15.7% HR/FB rate. The Boston bullpen relief of last season manufactured a 25.6% strikeout rate, .241 average against, 1.39 WHIP, 1.04 HR/9, 10.8% walk rate, 3.94 SIERA and 12.2% HR/FB rate. Provided an escalated Vegas run total with two starting pitchers well capable of mitigating damage at the plate, Awesemo data projects a favorable expected run total coupled with positive reward making the under in Blue Jays vs. Red Sox among our best MLB bets today.

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Pirates vs. Cubs Over 8.5 Total Runs (-105)

The Pittsburgh Pirates (5-7) begin a National League Central divisional four-game road series with the Chicago Cubs (6-6) as they send righty Bryse Wilson to the mound against Mark Leiter Jr. Given a 7:40 p.m. ET first pitch, the weather at Wrigley Field forecast a cool 63 degrees. Turning back to OddsShopper the Cubs are -160 moneyline favorites with an 8.4 Vegas run total while Awesemo data projects an 8.4 expected run total and -1.8% return on investment for the over due to slight juice. Wilson (3-7, 2021) has yet to collect a win or loss in two no decision starts this season following a combined nine hits and five runs earned against, four walked batters and four strikeouts in 8 1/3 innings pitched against St. Louis and Washington. Last season for Wilson was not the kindest either as he managed a 93 mph fastball since on the decline with a 14.3% strikeout, .284 average against, 1.45 WHIP, 1.82 HR/9, 5.35 ERA, 5.49 FIP and 16% HR/FB rate. Wilson will face five righties, two lefties and two switch-hitters. Facing right-handed-hitting last year Wilson managed an 18.7% strikeout rate, .302 average against, 1.43 WHIP, 1.54 HR/9, 5.3% walk rate, 4.48 FIP and stranded just 57.7% of batters reaching bases. The Cubs’ hitting when facing right-handed pitching in 2021 engineered a .233 batting average, 27.1% strikeout rate, .708 OPS, .170 ISO, 89 wRC+ and 15.5% HR/FB rate. The Pirates bullpen relief of last season achieved a 22.9% strikeout rate, .238 average against, 1.39 WHIP, 1.18 HR/9, 11% walk rate, 4.55 ERA and 12.3% HR/FB rate.

The return of Leiter Jr. (0-1, 2018) began much how it left off in 2018 as he earned a loss in his first start earning five hits and seven runs against, four walked batters and four strikeouts in 3 1/3 innings pitched against the Rockies. In 2018 Leiter’s 20 games of relief work netted a 17.9% strikeout rate, .321 average against, 2.01 WHIP, 2.7 HR/9, 9.8% walk rate and 6.98 FIP, 7.71 ERA and awe-inspiring 25% HR/FB rate. Leiter will face four lefties, three righties and two switch-hitters. When facing opposite-handed hitting in 2018 the right-handed Leiter established a 25% strikeout rate, .275 average against, 1.74 WHIP, 2.13 HR/9, 13.3% walk rate, 5.77 FIP and 21.4% HR/FB rate. The Pirates’ hitting resume against right-handed pitching last season managed just a .236 batting average, .678 OPS, 1.31 ISO, 85 wRC+ and 9.6% HR/FB rate. The Cubs’ bullpen last year produced a 25.9% strikeout rate, .223 average against, 11.3% walk rate, 1.34 WHIP, 1.27 HR/9, 4.39 ERA and 15.4% HR/FB rate. Treated to two starting pitchers who struggle to extinguish scoring opportunities for the opposition, Awesemo projections lend the case to a high-scoring matchup at Wrigley that makes the run total over in Pirates vs. Cubs another of Thursday’s best MLB bets today.

Use OddsShopper to find the best betting odds and check out the MLB betting page for the rest of our free MLB betting picks today.

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More Quick MLB Picks & Predictions Today

  • St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline (+120), 13.1% xROI
  • Kansas City Royals Moneyline (+115), 5.1% xROI
  • Diamondbacks vs. Nationals Under (-110), 2.3% xROI
  • White Sox vs. Guardians Over (-120), 5.7% xROI

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Once a man of 12-team teaser parlays and an abundance of season-long fantasy leagues, Chris "TopherSquints" Giordani gradually honed his fascination for sports and plus-money wagers toward Daily Fantasy Sports. A homegrown Awesemo student from the early stages of the site's inception, he became infatuated with the contrarian DFS mindset and eventually combined his passion for writing with Daily Fantasy at the Sports Gambling Podcast's website blog. Currently, Chris Giordani resides in Orange County, California, enjoys binging on stand-up comedy, and long strolls through the DraftKings lobby.

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