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Best MLB Bets Today with HUGE ROI Tuesday 4/12/22




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Come Tuesday, fans are given a more typically standard back-heavy schedule of games across Major League Baseball with most of the action playing in the late afternoon and early evening. To kick off the day, the Red Sox face Detroit in the second game of their road series. There will be a trio of midday games, while the remaining 11 matchups begin at 6:40 p.m. ET or later. The expert data and tools at Awesemo will lend more than a helping hand, including our expert MLB picks and predictions aiding to dial in at OddsShopper and identify Tuesday’s best MLB bets today.

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Each day, this article will seek out the best expert MLB bets today based on the potentially most profitable, according to xROI%. Utilizing the groundbreaking tools at OddsShopper to identify outstanding value with optimal returns on investment, parsing and prioritizing daily wagers is easy to filter, sort and bet. OddsShopper not only provides up-to-date odds featured across all major stateside sportsbooks but also the creation of a Prop Party Parlay, combining your choice of top picks to maximize returns.

Best MLB Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Mariners vs. White Sox Under 9 Total Runs (+100)

The Seattle Mariners (2-2) continue their season-opening road trip at Guaranteed Rate Field to battle the Chicago White Sox in a three-game series. Seattle has a much-hyped Matt Brash on the mound on the heels of some tremendous output in the Minor leagues. Chicago’s newly acquired veteran Vince Velasquez draws the start in hopes to rebound at home following a tumultuous 2021 season in Philadelphia and San Diego. With a 4:10 pm ET first pitch, the weather in Chicago forecasts a cloudy 63 degrees with wind gusts of 24 mph.

OddsShopper finds the White Sox as -130 moneyline favorites with a Vegas run total of 9.2 runs, while projections lend an 8.9 run total and 7.3% return on investment for the under. Looking to the AA league resume for Brash, the hype is understandable in his 10 starts in 2021. He had a 36% strikeout rate, 13.09 K/9, 0.49 HR/9, .161 average against, 1.00 WHIP, and 2.53 FIP, although a 10.4% walk rate highlights a metric for a tune-up. The right-handed Brash is due to face a White Sox hitting order of seven righties, one lefty and one switch-hitter. Facing right-handed pitchers in 2021, the White Sox delivered a .258 batting average, 24.5% strikeout rate, .753 OPS, and 108 wRC+. The Mariners bullpen however was rather efficient in their 24% strikeout rate, 0.93 HR/9, 8.3% walk rate, .230 average against, 1.22 WHIP and 3.88 ERA.

Velasquez (3-9) is on a road to redemption after 2021, where his 93.4 mph fastball was slightly down again from previous years with a 24.5% strikeout rate, .250 average against, 1.48 WHIP, 2.19 HR/9, 11.8% walk rate and 6.3 ERA in 25 games. The righty veteran is projected to face a split Mariners hitting order of four righties, four lefties and one switch-hitter. Velasquez needs to address splits on both sides of the plate, but his stats against lefties last season were notably worse, with a .297 average against, 1.83 WHIP and 12.5% walk rate. Facing right-handed opposition was not a treat either, considering his 2.43 HR/9 and 6.24 FIP. Seattle’s offensive when facing right-handed pitching may spare Velasquez, as their 2021 managed a .223 batting average, 25% strikeout rate, .684 OPS, 93 wRC+ and 12.5% HR/FB rate. Despite losing Craig Kimbrel in a trade to the Dodgers just before the season started, the White Sox bullpen manufactured a .229 average against, 27.9% strikeout rate, 1.25 WHIP, 3.97 ERA, and 12.9% HR/FB rate in 2021. With expert projections suggesting a positive return on investment by way of even money odds at +100, the under on a slightly elevated run total between the Mariners and White Sox estimates as one of several best MLB bets today.

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Mets vs. Phillies Under 9 Total Runs (-115)

The revamped New York Mets (3-2) and Philadelphia Phillies (3-1) are both starting the season with winning records after the Phillies beat their National League East rivals on Monday in a 5-4 victory. Tuesday brings Game 2 of the series with righty Zack Wheeler debuting at home against his old team and Tylor Megill drawing a second start already. First pitch will be at 6:45 p.m. ET on this sunny day at Citizens Bank Park.

At OddsShopper the Phillies are -155 moneyline favorites beside a game run total opening at 8.5 runs (and since moving to 9) with a projected 8.3 runs and 5% return on investment. Megill was marvelous in his first start in the season opener, with a 33.3% strikeout rate, six strikeouts, no walks and a .167 average against. Looking to 2021, Megill (4-6) produced a 26.1% strikeout rate, 9.94 strikeouts per nine innings, 1.28 WHIP, .251 average against, 3.85 SIERA and 4.52 earned run average. On Tuesday, Megill is in line to face a balanced Phillies attack of five right-handed hitters and four lefties. His splits last season were drastic with a 28.2% strikeout rate, 1.07 home runs per nine innings, 0.93 WHIP and 2.94 xFIP when facing fellow righties, while the tale of left-handed opponents was a 23.9% strikeout rate yet a 2.97 HR/9, 1.73 WHIP and 5.18 xFIP. The Phillies’ last season resume against right-handed pitching turned in a 22.5% strikeout rate, .237 batting average, 14.1% home run to fly ball rate and 92 wRC+. The Mets bullpen had an effective 25.8% strikeout rate, .233 average against, 1.30 WHIP and 3.9 ERA.

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Wheeler (14-10) is coming off one of his best seasons in his previous seven years with a 97.3 mph fastball at its highest velocity to date, career-best 29.1% strikeout rate, 10.42 K/9, .213 average against, 0.68 HR/9 and 1.01 WHIP. Wheeler’s old crew in New York is slated to assign a mixed order of four righties, three lefties and two switch-hitters. Unlike Megill, Wheeler’s splits last season were as even keeled as it gets, matching a 29.1% strikeout rate against both sides of the plate, a mutual sub 0.72 HR/9, 1.05 WHIP, 6.3% walk rate at their highest against lefties and .218 average against righties. The Mets when facing right-handed pitching last season managed a .237 batting average, 23.6% strikeout rate, .308 wOBA and 97 wRC+. The Phillies bullpen was not as accomplished as New York’s with a 23.8% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate, 4.60 ERA and 16.3% HR/FB rate. Yet if Megill comes out looking anything like he did on Thursday, fans could be in for an entertaining pitchers’ duel and making the under on the Mets and Phillies run total among the best MLB bets today.

Use OddsShopper to find the best betting odds and check out the MLB betting page for all of the rest of our free MLB betting picks today.

More Quick MLB Picks & Predictions Today

  • Red Sox vs. Tigers Under (-115), 8.5% xROI
  • Guardians vs. Reds Under (-110), 4.5% xROI
  • Padres vs. Giants Under (-115), 7.1% xROI

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Once a man of 12-team teaser parlays and an abundance of season-long fantasy leagues, Chris "TopherSquints" Giordani gradually honed his fascination for sports and plus-money wagers toward Daily Fantasy Sports. A homegrown Awesemo student from the early stages of the site's inception, he became infatuated with the contrarian DFS mindset and eventually combined his passion for writing with Daily Fantasy at the Sports Gambling Podcast's website blog. Currently, Chris Giordani resides in Orange County, California, enjoys binging on stand-up comedy, and long strolls through the DraftKings lobby.

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