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Best MLB Bets Today with HUGE ROI Tuesday 4/19/22




Best MLB picks today free expert MLB predictions and player prop bets today Tuesday May 17

Today’s offering of Major League Baseball starts with a couple of makeup games followed by a 15-game slate spanning all teams in the league without signs of impactful weather hindering any action. With some stellar pitchers scheduled to start their respective games today, this article will dial in on our expert MLB picks and predictions using Awesemo tools and data. Also guided by the unrivaled OddsShopper using their steadfast ability to click, sort and bet, this will narrow down the best MLB bets today.

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This article will seek out the best expert MLB bets today based on the potentially most profitable, according to xROI%. Utilizing the groundbreaking tools at OddsShopper to identify outstanding value with optimal returns on investment, parsing and prioritizing daily wagers is easy to filter, sort and bet. OddsShopper not only provides up-to-date odds featured across all major stateside sportsbooks but also the creation of a Prop Party Parlay, combining your choice of top picks to maximize returns.

Best MLB Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Twins vs. Royals Over 8.5 Total Runs (-115)

The Minnesota Twins (4-6) continue their road trip with Chris Archer making his second start, this time against Carlos Hernandez and the Kansas City Royals (3-5). With an 8:10 p.m. ET first pitch, the weather at Kauffman Stadium forecasts a cold, wet 53 degrees. Looking to OddsShopper, the Twins are modest -112 moneyline favorites with a Vegas run total of 8.4 while Awesemo data projects 8.4 total runs coupled by a -1.7% return on investment for the under. Archer (1-1, 2021) made a noteworthy first start in four innings pitched against the Dodgers, earning two hits against, one strikeout, no walks or runs against and three strikeouts. Archer was limited to 19 1/3 innings through six games with the Rays as he was plagued with a hip injury last season, although he tossed a 25.3% strikeout rate, .240 average against, 1.34 WHIP, 9.6% walk rate, 1.4 home runs per nine innings and 4.66 earned run average. Archer is projected to face five righties, two lefties and two switch-hitters. Facing righties in his last full season in 2019 with Pittsburgh, Archer managed a 26.4% strikeout rate, .260 average against, 1.4 WHIP, 4.73 FIP and 1.74 HR/9. Kansas City’s production against right-handed pitching earned a .242 batting average, 21.6% strikeout rate, .688 OPS, 10.3% home run to fly ball rate and 86 wRC+. The Twins’ bullpen last season produced a 23.8% strikeout rate, .238 average against, 9.3% walk rate, 1.31 WHIP, 1.33 HR/9 and 4.39 ERA.

Hernandez (6-2, 2021) is coming off no decision awarded in his first start against Cleveland, earning six hits against, two walked batters, four runs against and one strikeout in 4 1/3 innings pitched. Last year in his second season, Hernandez produced a 20.7% strikeout rate, .220 average against, 0.74 HR/9, 1.28 WHIP and 3.68 ERA, though an 11.8% walk rate needs improvement. Hernandez will face four righties, four lefties and one switch-hitter. With mostly mutual production in his plate splits, facing fellow right-handed opposition Hernandez demonstrated a 20.7% strikeout rate, .254 average against, 1.37 WHIP, 0.79 HR/9, 9.8% walk rate and 3.94 FIP. His tenure against lefties was better in several metrics outside of a 13.3% walk rate and 4.24 FIP. The Twins’ offensive resume against right-handed pitching produced a .240 batting average, 23.1% strikeout rate, .744 OPS, .320 wOBA and 102 wRC+. The Royals’ bullpen delivered similarly to their opponent’s relievers last year with a 23.4% strikeout rate, .231 average against, 1.09 HR/9, 1.31 WHIP, 4.22 ERA and 11.4% HR/FB rate. Though the Twins have hung some runs up of late, they are still swinging just a collective .190 batting average and 86 wRC+, while the Royals are struggling to even achieve that much (.207 batting average, 66 wRC+). With Awesemo projected data conveying a high scoring affair, the over in Twins vs. Royals delivers one of the best MLB bets today.

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Rangers vs. Mariners Over 7.5 Total Runs (-120)

The Texas Rangers (2-7) have struggled in the win column while producing on offense as they begin a three-game road series against the Seattle Mariners, sending righty Jon Gray up against left-hander Robbie Ray. Turning back to the betting lines at OddsShopper, the Mariners are sitting as -128 moneyline favorites with a 7.5 Vegas run total while Awesemo data projects a 7.7 run total and -4.3% return on investment for the over due to excess juice. Gray (8-12, 2021) received a no-decision in his first start against the Blue Jays, earning four strikeouts, three hits against, three runs against and two walked batters in four innings pitched. Last season, the win-loss record did not do Gray as much justice, with a 24.4% strikeout rate, .242 average against, 1.33 WHIP, 9% walk rate and 4.22 FIP. Gray is projected to face four lefties, three righties and two switch-hitters today. Gray’s efforts in 2021 against left-handed opposition manufactured a 21.4% strikeout rate, .235 average against, 1.34 WHIP, 1.16 HR/9, 4.58 xFIP and 10.3% walk rate while stranding just 66.3% of batters reaching bases. The Mariners’ bats when facing right-handed pitching last season turned in a .223 batting average, 25% strikeout rate, .684 OPS, 93 wRC+ and 12.5% HR/FB rate. The Rangers’ bullpen in 2021 was surprisingly decent, producing a 22% strikeout rate, .240 average against, 1.32 WHIP, 1.12 HR/9 and 4.13 ERA.

Ray (13-7, 2021) started the season tumultuously with a win over the Twins and a loss to the White Sox combining for a 16.1% strikeout rate, .265 average against, 1.43 WHIP and 2.7 HR/9 in a very limited sample size. Ray is coming off a Cy Young bid in 2021, producing an admirable 32.1% strikeout rate, .209 average against, 1.04 WHIP, 6.7% walk rate, 1.54 HR/9 and stranding 90.1% of batters reaching bases. Tonight will face seven righties and two left-handed batters. Last season when facing opposite-handed hitting, Ray engineered a 32.3% strikeout rate, .216 average against, 1.09 WHIP, 1.55 HR/9 and 3.51 xFIP. Texas’ offense against left-handed pitching delivered a .233 batting average, 22.7% strikeout rate, .652 OPS, .284 wOBA, 79 wRC+ and 10.2% HR/FB rate in 2021. The Mariners relief crew from last season delivered a 24% strikeout rate, .230 average against, 1.22 WHIP, 0.93 HR/9, 8.3% walk rate, 3.88 ERA and 10.1% HR/FB rate. Considering a slightly decreased run total in the betting lines with two offenses above a 105 wRC+ this season, the supporting Awesemo data lends a case to both offenses to continue slugging with the over in Rangers vs. Mariners as another of our best MLB bets today.

Use OddsShopper to find the best betting odds and check out the MLB betting page for the rest of our free MLB betting picks today.

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More Quick MLB Picks & Predictions Today

  • Diamondbacks vs. Nationals Under (-120), 27.4% xROI
  • Rays vs. Cubs Under (-110), 5.2% xROI
  • Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Under (+100), 4.5% xROI
  • Giants vs. Mets Under (-120), 17.7% xROI

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Once a man of 12-team teaser parlays and an abundance of season-long fantasy leagues, Chris "TopherSquints" Giordani gradually honed his fascination for sports and plus-money wagers toward Daily Fantasy Sports. A homegrown Awesemo student from the early stages of the site's inception, he became infatuated with the contrarian DFS mindset and eventually combined his passion for writing with Daily Fantasy at the Sports Gambling Podcast's website blog. Currently, Chris Giordani resides in Orange County, California, enjoys binging on stand-up comedy, and long strolls through the DraftKings lobby.

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