Today’s schedule of Major League Baseball kicks off early, as seven of the 13 games start by 1:10 p.m. ET. While there are some intriguing matchups across the board, the weather might be a concern in some cities today, so keep an eye out for updates. Utilizing the Awesemo tools and data to navigate the day’s action, coupled with expert MLB picks and predictions and OddsShopper, this article will narrow down some selections for the best MLB bets today.
Each day, this article will seek out the best expert MLB bets today based on the potentially most profitable, according to xROI%. Utilizing the groundbreaking tools at OddsShopper to identify outstanding value with optimal returns on investment, parsing and prioritizing daily wagers is easy to filter, sort and bet. OddsShopper not only provides up-to-date odds featured across all major stateside sportsbooks but also the creation of a Prop Party Parlay, combining your choice of top picks to maximize returns.
Best MLB Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions
New York Mets Moneyline (-105) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Although it may give some deja vu, the focus here is on the matchup between the New York Mets (4-2) and Philadelphia Phillies (3-2). Fans are treated to a magnificent pitching duel between Max Scherzer and Aaron Nola with an xWin projection on the Mets moneyline that urges intrigue. With a 1:05 pm ET first pitch the weather at Citizens Bank Park forecasts a partly sunny 58-degree day. Shifting to OddsShopper, the Phillies are slight favorites at -115 odds, though the Mets are -105 underdogs with a projected 52% xWin and 2.2% return on investment. Scherzer (15-4, 2021) is already fitting into his new home with the Mets, bringing an impressive resume with a 94 mph fastball down just slightly from 2021 where he produced a 34.1% strikeout rate, .184 average against, 0.86 WHIP, 1.15 home runs per nine innings, 5.2% walk rate and 2.97 FIP. Scherzer is slated to face a balanced Phillies order of five right-handed and four lefty hitters. With mutually admirable splits at the plate, Scherzer handled righty bats with a 37.4% strikeout rate, 11.84 strikeouts per nine innings, 2.9% walk rate, .177 average against, 0.74 WHIP and 2.57 xFIP. Philadelphia’s tenure against right-handed pitching last season managed a 22.5% strikeout rate, .237 batting average, .311 wOBA and 92 wRC+. Upon Scherzer’s exit on Wednesday, the Mets’ bullpen stands to hold their own following a 25.8% strikeout rate, 9.6% walk rate, 1.30 WHIP, 3.9 earned run average and 12.8% home run to fly ball rate last season.
Nola (9-9, 2021) draws his second home start of 2022 after a season where he earned a 29.8% strikeout rate, .235 average against, 5.2% walk rate, 1.13 WHIP, 3.37 FIP and 1.3 HR/9. The Mets’ offense is projected to roll out a mixed bag of four righties, three lefties and two switch-hitters. Facing lefties, Nola produced a 32.5% strikeout rate, 12.01 K/9, 1.04 WHIP, 4.6% walk rate and .221 average against while his home run rate elevated slightly to 1.39 HR/9. Last year the Mets had an identical .237 batting average, a 23.6% strikeout rate, .709 OPS, 97 wRC+ and 14.1% HR/FB rate against righties. The Phillies’ bullpen was not quite as merited with a 4.60 ERA, .246 average against, 23.8% strikeout rate, 1.39 WHIP, 4.27 xFIP and 16.3% HR/FB rate. Despite the starting pitching matchup being arguably the most exciting on Wednesday, the Mets underdog moneyline with Scherzer on the mound carries a favorable projected win rate and becomes one of the best MLB bets today.
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Brewers vs. Orioles Under 8 Total Runs (-110)
The Milwaukee Brewers (2-3) continue their road trip with a stop at Camden Yards to face the Baltimore Orioles (1-4). Milwaukee will assign their flagship starting pitcher Corbin Burnes to the mound to square off against the streaky left-hander John Means. At the 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch, Baltimore should be mostly cloudy, but warm.
Looking to OddsShopper, the Brewers are unsurprisingly -175 moneyline favorites including a 7.6 Vegas run total since moving to 8 runs, with a projected 7.5 runs setting up a 1% return on investment for the under. There is no denying the sheer talent of Burnes (11-5, 2021), whose 96.5 mph fastball was up in 2021, alongside a 35.6% strikeout rate, .199 average against, 5.2% walk rate, 0.38 HR/9 and 1.63 FIP. Baltimore is projected to assign a heavy order of six right-handed hitters with two lefties and one switch-hitter. In 2021, Burnes dominated both sides of the plate with a static 12.61 K/9 to righty and lefty batters, a strikeout rate above 35% against each, with an 0.85 WHIP and .179 average against right-handed hitters. The Orioles’ offense often sputtered against right-handed pitching in 2021, with a .228 batting average, 24.9% strikeout rate, .682 OPS, .296 wOBA and 85 wRC+. Milwaukee’s bullpen had areas that both helped and hindered with a 28.1% strikeout rate, .223 average against, 4.02 ERA, 1.39 HR/9, 1.30 WHIP and 10.7% walk rate.
The bipolar productivity of Means (6-9, 2021) has layers of evidence for his eccentric results, including a no-hitter just under a year ago. In addition, Means produced a 22.7% strikeout rate, .223 average against, 4.4% walk rate and 1.03 WHIP, while churning out a 4.62 FIP and 1.84 HR/9. Means will be due to face a projected Brewers lineup of six right-handed hitters, two lefties and one switch-hitter. Facing opposite-handed hitters in 2021, Means managed a 22.8% strikeout rate, .223 average against, 4.1% walk rate and 1.02 WHIP, while stranding 80.5% of hitters reaching bases, yet a 2.12 HR/9 and 4.98 FIP raise some eyebrows. Thankfully for Means’ ups and downs, the Brewers’ offensive facing lefty pitchers produced a 24% strikeout rate, .231 batting average, .279 BABIP, .159 ISO, 90 wRC+ and 13.4% HR/FB rate. The Orioles’ bullpen may be an adverse X-factor in the case of the under with 2021’s resume offering a 21.5% strikeout rate, 1.47 HR/9, .257 average against, 1.46 WHIP, 4.76 FIP and league-worst 5.7 ERA. Yet the slight nod to the under bestowed by the projected run total with a positive return on investment in tandem with two pitchers who could feasibly go the distance extends to another of Wednesday’s best MLB bets today.
More Quick MLB Picks & Predictions Today
- Athletics vs. Rays Over (+100), 5% xROI
- Red Sox vs. Tigers Under (-110), 4.6% xROI
- Mariners vs. White Sox Under (-110), 3.8% xROI
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