Wednesday means a split schedule of Major League Baseball, including late morning/early afternoon action leading into the evening’s slate of games to declare some expert MLB picks and predictions. The very first pitch of the day is in St. Louis at 1:15 p.m. ET, while thankfully weather in all game regions forecasts no threat of postponement for now. Equipped with Awesemo tools and data to determine potential positive rewards and expected win rates, this article will filter and sort the updated betting lines at OddsShopper to narrow the scope and delve into the best MLB bets today based on these identifying factors.
This article will seek out the best expert MLB bets today based on the potentially most profitable, according to xROI%. Utilizing the groundbreaking tools at OddsShopper to identify outstanding value with optimal returns on investment, parsing and prioritizing daily wagers is easy to filter, sort and bet. OddsShopper not only provides up-to-date odds featured across all major stateside sportsbooks but also the creation of a Prop Party Parlay, combining your choice of top picks to maximize returns.
Best MLB Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions
Royals vs. White Sox Over 7 Runs (-105)
Tonight the Kansas City Royals (6-9) will send Zack Greinke to the mound to duel with Dylan Cease and the Chicago White Sox (6-10). With the first pitch scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET, the weather at Guaranteed Rate Field forecasts a chilly 40 degrees. Turning to OddsShopper, the White Sox are -180 moneyline favorites with a 6.9 Vegas run total while Awesemo data projects a seven expected run total including a 0.4% return on investment for the under due to moderate juice. Greinke (11-6, 2021) has yet to reach the win column this season with a loss and two no-decisions in three starts, managing a combined 16 hits against, two strikeouts, four runs earned against and three batters walked in 16 innings pitched against the Twins, Tigers and Guardians. Last season with the Astros, Greinke maintained an 88.8 mph fastball that has since come up in velocity while producing a 17.2% strikeout rate, .249 average against, 1.17 WHIP, 5.2% walk rate, 1.58 home runs per nine innings, 4.16 earned run average, 4.71 FIP and 17.4% home run to fly ball rate. Today Greinke is slated to face a White Sox order of six righties, two lefties and one switch-hitter. When faced with fellow right-handed plate opposition last season, Greinke managed a 17.8% strikeout rate, .285 average against, 5% walk rate, 1.36 WHIP, 2.01 HR/9, 5.25 FIP, 18.6% HR/FB rate and stranded 73.2% of batters reaching bases. The White Sox hitting prowess against right-handed pitching in 2021 achieved a .255 batting average, 22.4% strikeout rate, .753 OPS, .162 ISO, 14.2% HR/FB rate and 108 wRC+. The Royals’ bullpen in 2021 produced a 23.4% strikeout rate, .231 average against, 1.0 HR/9, 1.31 WHIP, 10.4% walk rate, 4.22 ERA and 11.4% HR/FB rate.
Cease (13-7, 2021) has fared quite well to start the season with two wins and a loss in three starts achieving a combined 19 strikeouts, 13 hits against, six earned runs against and seven walked batters in 16 innings pitched against the Guardians, Rays and Tigers. Last season, Cease demonstrated a dominant 31.9% strikeout rate, .220 average against, 1.25 WHIP, 3.41 FIP, 1.09 HR/9, 9.6% walk rate, 3.91 ERA and 11.3% HR/FB rate. Cease is projected to battle a Royals order of five righties, two lefties and two switch-hitters. When tasked against right-handed hitting last season, Cease delivered a 31.5% strikeout rate, .220 average against, 1.28 WHIP, 0.97 HR/9, 3.34 FIP, 10.6% walk rate and 9.5% HR/FB rate. The Royals’ offensive efforts against right-handed pitching in 2021 managed a .242 batting average, 21.6% strikeout rate, .688 OPS, .145 ISO, 10.3% HR/FB rate and 86 wRC+. The White Sox bullpen was among the better relief in the Majors last season with a 27.9% strikeout rate, .229 average against, 1.25 WHIP, 1.15 HR/9, 9.1% walk rate, 3.97 ERA and 12.9% HR/FB rate. Awesemo data projects a lower-scoring game with a low Vegas total, making it one of the best MLB bets today.
Use OddsShopper to find the best betting odds and check out the MLB betting page for the rest of our free MLB betting picks today.
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Astros vs. Rangers Over 8.5 Total Runs (-115)
The Houston Astros (8-9) will have righty Cristian Javier starting against Glenn Otto and the Rangers tonight. With an 8:05 p.m. ET first pitch, the weather at Globe Life Field forecasts an inviting 77 degrees. Looking back to OddsShopper the Astros are -118 moneyline favorites beside an 8.4 Vegas run total with Awesemo data projecting nine expected runs in total providing a 12% return on investment to the over. Javier (4-1, 2021) draws his first start following three games of relief work achieving a combined 12 strikeouts, five hits against, no earned runs against and one walked batter in 8 1/3 innings pitched against the Diamondbacks and twice facing the Angels. Last season in nine starts, Javier delivered a 30.7% strikeout rate, .184 average against, 1.18 WHIP, 1.42 HR/9, 3.55 ERA, 12.5% walk rate, 4.33 FIP and 14.2% HR/FB rate. Tonight Javier will face five lefties and four right-handed hitters. Faced with left-handed opposition last season, Javier demonstrated a 24% strikeout rate, .230 average against, 1.37 HR/9, 1.65 WHIP, 16.9% walk rate, 5.43 FIP and 14% HR/FB rate. The Rangers’ hitting resume against right-handed pitching in 2021 produced a .232 batting average, 23.5% strikeout rate, .678 OPS, .150 ISO, 12.8% HR/FB rate and 86 wRC+. The Astros’ bullpen relief achieved a 25.7% strikeout rate, .227 average against, 1.18 HR/9, 1.30 WHIP, 10.4% walk rate, 4.06 ERA and 13.7% HR/FB rate.
Otto (0-3, 2021) has already surpassed his previous season’s record getting a win in his first start this season after tossing five strikeouts, two hits earned against, one walked batter and one run earned against in five innings pitched against Oakland. Last season for Otto was mildly forgettable in six games pitched, with a 25.2% strikeout rate, .317 average against, 1.71 WHIP, 0.77 HR/9, 9.26 ERA, 7.2% walk rate, 3.17 FIP and 10.5% HR/FB rate. Tonight Otto is projected to face five righties, three lefties and one switch-hitter. When matched against fellow right-handed plate opposition last season, Otto managed a 28.6% strikeout rate, .261 average against, 1.06 HR/9, 1.35 WHIP, 6.5% walk rate, 3.35 FIP and 15.4% HR/FB rate. Houston’s offense when matched against right-handed pitching in 2021 engineered a .266 batting average, 20% strikeout rate, .781 OPS, .176 ISO, 13.5% HR/FB rate and 116 wRC+. When the Rangers’ bullpen was called, they produced a 22% strikeout rate, .240 average against, 1.12 HR/9, 1.32 WHIP, 4.13 ERA and 11.9% HR/FB rate. Though both offenses have struggled against righties, Awesemo projects a positive return, so the over is among the best MLB bets today.
Use OddsShopper to find the best betting odds and check out the MLB betting page for the rest of our free MLB betting picks today.
More Quick MLB Picks & Predictions Today
- Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks over (-110), 20.9% xROI
- Mariners vs. Rays over (-115), 9.4% xROI
- Rockies vs. Phillies over (-110), 1.7% xROI
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