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Bet Leeds vs. Liverpool Over 10.5 Crosses (-125)? Best Soccer Bets Today, EPL Picks & Predictions | Saturday, Sept. 11, 2021

Jovanni Vidal



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The following are EPL betting picks, predictions and the best soccer bets today where I agree with the results driven by my expert betting model. These are selected after careful review of the best available soccer betting lines and EPL odds. For this article, we will be diving into the EPL Matches: Burnley vs. Leeds United and Norwich City vs. Leicester City, with expert soccer bets, tips and predictions.

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Best Soccer Bets, Tips & EPL Predictions Today

Leeds United vs. Liverpool: Over 10.5 Crosses (-125)

Leeds United welcomes Liverpool. This match looks to have fireworks, with Liverpool leading the EPL in on-target volume of 6.67 per match. Leeds United is tied with Arsenal for the most on-target shots allowed, at six per match. The Leeds defense has been thrashed by the EPL, allowing two goals to Everton and five to Manchester United. The key for Liverpool is the starters.

Liverpool originally was expected to miss key players in Fabinho, Firmino and Alisson should they have had to quarantine after Brazil National duty. They did not travel to Brazil for World Cup Qualifiers, so they should be ready for this match. Mohamed Salah also would have been forced out had he traveled to play for Egypt, which he also missed. The services of key members will prove to cause problems for Leeds United.

Leeds United allowed 1.36 expected goals at home, below average in the EPL, but they averaged 1.61 expected goals on offense. Liverpool allowed 1.24 expected goals and relied 1.94 expected goals to carry them on the road. The key to total is the services of Virgil Van Dijk. Should he play, Leeds will have a hard time finding goals. Liverpool still has the firepower to post three-plus goals. With Van Dijk Leeds still has the offense to get a goal at home, but without him the over 3.5 at +135 (DraftKings) is very much in play.

The play that holds value is the total corners at over 10.5 and -125 (DraftKings). Most books do not hold this prop. Leeds allowed a below average 5.55 corners per match and ranked third in the EPL with 6 corners per match a season ago. Liverpool ranked first with 6.71 per match. Liverpool allowed the second-fewest corners a season ago, with 3.21 per match. In previous matches, where the totals swayed over and under the 2.5 mark, the corner prop for Leeds cleared the over marks with comfort. In a draw of 1-1, Leeds led the corner marks 10-8. In their first meeting Leeds cleared the corner mark 9-0.

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Manchester United vs. Newcastle: Over 3.5 (+115)

Manchester United looks to unveil new signing Cristiano Ronaldo. He was released early form Portugal to prepare for his return to the EPL. What better match to start his return than against Newcastle? Newcastle allowed 1.64 expected goals on the road a season ago and they continue to be exposed on the defense. They have conceded two plus goals in each of their first three matches to start the year. Newcastle is allowing 4.33 shots on target per match, fourth worst in the EPL.

Manchester United is firing on all cylinders, with 4.67 shots on target. The shot volume is there, and Ronaldo looks to increase the on-target mark. Manchester United is allowing 3.67 shots on target per match and has kept allowed goals lower thanks in part to David De Gea. They have a firm striker in play and the match up provides plenty of chances to see around a 3-1 finish. The previous matches between these clubs were lopsided with Manchester United dominating 4-1, 3-1 and 4-1. The key to the over falls on Newcastle finding the back of the net, and the offense of Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin can convert on a chance.

Other Soccer Bets Today: EPL & Other Leagues

Colorado vs. LA Galaxy: Over 2.5 (-160)

Hoffenheim vs. Mainz: Over 2.5 (-165)

Monaco vs. Marseille: Over 2.5 (-120)

Montpellier vs. Saint Etienne: Over 2.5 (-125)

Gent vs. Charleroi: Over 3.5 (+135)

NE Revolution vs. NYCFC: Over 2.5 (-130)

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Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Awesemo to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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