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Bet Leeds Over 2.5 (-135) vs. Burnley? Best Soccer Bets Today, EPL Picks & Predictions | Saturday, Aug. 28, 2021

Jovanni Vidal

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EPL DFS picks DraftKings FanDUel English Premier League soccer optimal lineup optimizer Patrick Bamford free expert projections odds Leeds

The following are EPL betting picks, predictions and the best soccer bets today where I agree with the results driven by my expert betting model. These are selected after careful review of the best available soccer betting lines and EPL odds. For this article, we will be diving into the EPL Matches: Burnley vs. Leeds United and Norwich City vs. Leicester City, with expert soccer bets, tips and predictions.

Best Soccer Bets, Tips & EPL Predictions Today

Burnley vs. Leeds United: Over 2.5 (-135)

The theme in Leeds United matches is attacking the defense of Leeds. Leeds’ offense averages 1.53 expected goals dating back to a season ago, the fifth most in the EPL. They are allowing 1.78 expected goals. Leeds’ actual goals allowed is 1.42, just behind Burnley’s 1.444. Burnley allows 1.45 expected goals at home. This plays into the Leeds United’s offensive wheelhouse.

Leeds United sports the worst expected goals allowed on the road, at 1.94 per match. This season neither of the two clubs did much to address the defensive struggles. Leeds and Burnley sat third and fourth, respectively, in shots on target allowed, at 4.97 and 4.71 per match. Both clubs have capable finishers around the net, with Patrick Bamford and Chris Wood. There is no shortage of created chances, with Dwight McNeil for the home side alongside Ashley Westwood should he return for this match. The visitors have pace on the wings, with Jack Harrison and Raphinha to complement willing shooters in the midfield, being Stuart Dallas and Mateusz Klich.

This season Leeds has allowed 3.5 goals per match, while Burnley has allowed two. This line of -135 still holds value. Neither club will find an answer on defense, but needing wins this early will keep the pace of play up.

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Norwich City vs. Leicester City: Leicester City Moneyline (-120)

Leicester City is coming off an embarrassing loss to West Ham United by the score of 4-1. Norwich City is nowhere near the talent of West Ham. The host made a living outscoring clubs in the Championship a season ago, and in the prior season in the EPL they were constantly exposed for their poor defense. Norwich’s expected goals differential is minus-1.6 per match, suggesting their offense is doing little in the way of making up for the lack of defense.

Leicester City will be without Ayoze Perez in this match. Insert Kelechi Iheanacho into the mix, and the offense can return to the late-season surge that saw them lift the FA Cup. Leicester City sported an above-average goal differential of plus-5.7. Leicester City was above average a season ago in shots on target, with 4.71 per match. Norwich ranked sixth best in a lower division a season ago, allowing 3.22 shots on target per match. Leicester City will expose them in this match with the firepower of Jamie Vardy and company. Leicester needs to win these matches as they aim for top-six finish.

Other Soccer Bets Today: EPL & Other Leagues

West Ham United vs. Crystal Palace: West Ham Moneyline (-170)

Real Bettis vs. Real Madrid: Over 2.5 (-155)

Union Saint-Gilloise vs. Standard Liege: Over 2.5 (-145)

K.A.A. Gent vs. Club Brugge: Club Brugge Moneyline (+140)

RC Lens vs. Lorient: Over 2.5 (-105)

Montpellier vs. Lille: Over 2.5 (-135)


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Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Awesemo to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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