The following are EPL betting picks, predictions and the best soccer bets today where I agree with the results driven by my betting model. These are selected after careful review of the best available soccer betting lines and EPL odds. For this article, we will be diving into the EPL Matches: Aston Villa – Newcastle and Arsenal – Chelsea.
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EPL Betting Picks: Fantasy Soccer | Aug. 21
Aston Villa vs. Newcastle: Over 2.5 (-130)
Aston Villa returns home for their second match of the EPL season. Dating back a season, Villa has an even expected goal differential at home, producing of 1.46 per match. Newcastle has the third-worst goal differential on the road in the EPL. They also allowed 1.62 expected goals per match, sixth worst in the EPL. Both the previous two matches between these two clubs fell under 2.5 total goals.
Newcastle failed to field their complete roster in the two previous meetings. The defense is always a concern for the visitors even when healthy. Aston Villa will look to get on the scoresheet often after an embarrassing performance against a newly promoted Watford team on Matchday 1. Even if Ollie Watkins has yet to return, Danny Ings, Anwar El Ghazi and Leon Baily had 8.21 shots per match and 29 goals between them a season ago.
Newcastle has a healthy Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin. Jacob Murphy has come into his own, and the supporting cast of Jonjo Shelvey and Matt Richie do well to set up chances. Miguel Almiron pushes the pace and draws fouls to create set piece chances. With Saint-Maximin in the lineup, Newcastle failed to score a goal five times in 25 matches. They failed to score in seven of Wilson’s 26 matches played. Newcastle produced at least one goal in four of their last five competitive matches, which included in-form opponents Manchester City and Leicester City.
Arsenal vs. Chelsea: Chelsea Moneyline (-135)
Arsenal was dismantled in their opening match by Brentford. The concern has been their inability to finish. When healthy, Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang have performed well against the top six heavyweights in the EPL. The issue is they are not healthy. On the other side of the pitch, Chelsea keeps adding to their riches with the addition of Romelu Lukaku. Chelsea produced a +12.8 expected goals differential on the road a season ago, ranking third best in the EPL. They had 1.49 expected goals on the road and 1.42 actual goals per match. They come in with a little bit of revenge after a 1-0 defeat to Arsenal a season ago, so they should not overlook the Gunners.
The loss a season ago featured a Chelsea lineup with no Timo Werner or Marcos Alonso. Chelsea dominated the possession and produced three more shots on target in that loss. Yes, Arsenal had their number last season. The Champions League experience and a year of collaboration by the young stars of Chelsea will help them right the ship against a depleted Arsenal defense.
Other Plays: EPL and Other Leagues
Leeds United vs. Everton: Over 2.5 (-165)
Liverpool Moneyline/Manchester United: Moneyline Parlay (-112)
CSKA Moscow Moneyline (-150)
Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs. Eupen: Over 2.5 (-140)
Standard Liege vs. Oostende: Over 2.5 (-140)
Montpellier vs. Lorient: Over 2.5 (-120)
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