The following are Euro 2020 betting picks, predictions and the best soccer bets today where I agree with the results driven by my betting model. These are selected after careful review of the best available soccer betting lines and Euro 2020 odds. For this article, we will be diving into the Euro 2020 knockout stage bets for Italy vs. Austria and Belgium vs. Portugal.
Best Soccer Bets Today for Euro 2020
The Euro 2020 knockout stage is set. Most these matches we will dig further into on the DFS articles. There are a few matchups with early lines that have value.
Austria vs. Italy Exact Score: 2-0, 0-2, 2-1 or 1-2 +200 (DraftKings)
Italy takes on Austria in their first match of the knockout stage. The Italians are riding a clean sheet run of eight consecutive matches, including six in competitive fields. In the group stage they allowed 0.61, 0.44 and 0.25 expected goals. The opponents in these three matchups are better than Austria in the FIFA world rankings, with the exception of Turkey (29th compared to Austria’s 23rd).
Austria has managed 1.60, 0.68 and 1.99 expected goals in the group stage. The outlying performance is attributed to a match against Ukraine, which saw Austria produce one actual goal in a dominating performance. The 1.99 expected came against a North Macedonia side that was butchered for eight total goals across three matches.
Italy -1: +135 (BetMGM)
Italy is a more disciplined side than any Austria has faced so far. With the exception of a Denmark 4-0 defeat, Austria’s defense is rather controlled and has not conceded more than two goals. The Italians are sitting at -225 and -550 to advance (BetMGM).
The expectation of a first goal by Italy is -275 on BetMGM. Austria has no recourse but to push to tie the match which sets up a counter by Italy. The model simulates a greater chance for a 2-0 Italy victory than a 1-0 victory. Given the counterpunch and shot volume from Italy, combined with Austria’s push possibly sneaking one in, the spread of 2-0, 0-2, 2-1 or 1-2 looks strong. For these same reasons, Italy (-1) at +135 (BetMGM) is one of the best soccer bets on today’s slate.
The Latest Sports Betting Content from Stokastic Odds
- BetMGM North Carolina Pre-Registration: $200 in Bonus Bets Awaiting You When Sports Betting Launches
- Bet365 North Carolina Pre-Registration: Get $100 in Bonus Bets Before March 11
- DraftKings North Carolina Pre-Registration: Up to $300 in Bonus Bets for NC Launch on March 11!
- FanDuel North Carolina Pre-Registration: Grab $300 in Bonus Bets Between Now and March 11!
- Bet365 Louisiana Bonus Code: Bet $1, Get $365 in Bonus Bets!
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Belgium vs. Portugal: Over 2.5 Goals +105 (BetMGM)
Belgium drew Portugal for the start of the knockout stage. This is probably one of the worst draws Belgium could have hoped for, with teams such as Ukraine and Austria posing more favorable matchups. Belgium swept the group stage 3-0, while Portugal saw a split 1-1-1 in the hardest group.
Belgium allowed an average of 0.77 expected goals per match. Demark was able to break through on the scoresheet and accounted for 1.66 expected goals. Belgium has conceded to Wales, Czech Republic and England in competitive matches in recent form.
Portugal has a pressing concern in the back. Taking away the own goals against Germany, they still allowed two goals apiece to France and Germany. They gave up 1.56 per match, which was skewed down from the match against Hungary. They have no shortage of goals, with a combined seven actual goals and 2.26 expected per match in the group stage.
The odds for both teams to score are -125 (BetMGM), which is a solid play in its own right. The presence of Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku and Cristiano Ronaldo in one fixture spells goals. The model has the over 2.5 total hitting 63.15% of the time, and this number seems like it should be around -140. For the consideration of both teams to score, the model shows that number hitting 80.41% of the time.
Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!
Check out Stokastic's Best Bets home page for more sports betting picks and predictions.
