Tonight Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers will host Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 9 Monday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.
BetMGM Week 9 NFL Best Bets: Monday Night Football
Point Total: Over 39 (-110)
Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model is the place to look before placing any bets. The model compares the current point total the sportsbook provides compared to the expected point total. The same is true for moneylines and point spreads. The model gives an expected point total of 41 points. BetMGM has the total set at 39 points. According to the model, this bet has a 9.8% expected ROI.
Moneyline: Chicago Bears (+240)
BetMGM has the Moneyline at +240 for the Bears, which has a 29% chance of winning. Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model gives the Bears a 30% chance of winning. It is a very small difference, but this is a bet to consider for those who like betting underdogs.
Allen Robinson II Receptions Made: Over 3.5 (+120)
When looking for player props, Awesemo’s Player Props Tool is the place to see what players are projected to do compared to the odds offered at sportsbooks. Allen Robinson II averages 3.25 receptions per game. His median is 3 receptions per game. The model has Robinson projected for 4.08 catches, an expected win rate of 57% and an expected ROI of 28%.
Zach Gentry Yards Receiving: Over 10.5 (-115)
The Player Props Tool projects Zach Gentry for 18.54 yards receiving. Gentry is averaging 15 yards per game and 10.4 yards per reception on the season. In Week 8 Gentry was on the field for 61% of the plays, a season high. He could hit the over on just one play, which makes the bet appealing. The expected win rate on this bet is 63%, and the expected ROI is 20%.
Darnell Mooney Receptions Made: Over 3.5 (-110)
Mooney is projected to catch 4.32 passes according to the Player Props Tool. He is averaging 4.13 receptions per game, and his median number of receptions is five. Pittsburgh has the No. 13 pass defense in the NFL. The model gives a 59% chance of winning the bet and a 13% expected ROI.
Justin Fields Yards Passing: Over 180.5 (-115)
Fields is projected for 201.05 yards passing in the Player Props Tool. Pittsburgh allows on average 239.7 yards passing per game. Since he has become the starter, Fields has a low of 68 yards and a high of 209, with an average of 153.5 and a median of 174. This bet has an expected win percentage of 60%.
One-Game Parlay (+750)
The best one-game parlay at BetMGM is a series that projects well in the Player Props Tool: Fields under 39.5 yards rushing (29.92 projected), Fields over 174.5 yards passing (201.05 projected), Robinson over 34.5 yards receiving (49.55 projected) and Najee Harris under 84.5 yards rushing (79.30 projected). If all four legs of this parlay hit, it pays out 7.5x
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