NFL Best Bets: Week 17 Monday Night Football Odds & Picks

Tonight Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers will host Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 17 Monday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.

BetMGM Week 17 NFL Best Bets: Sunday Night Football

Moneyline: Browns +125

OddsShopper is the place to look before placing any bets. The model compares the current point spread the sportsbook offers compared to the expected point spread. The same is true for moneylines and point totals in that it compares expected to what the sportsbook offers. The model gives the Browns a 52% chance of winning the game. BetMGM with the +125 odds is giving the Browns a 44.44% chance of winning. Because the expected win rate is higher than the implied win rate, this is a bet to make.

Najee Harris Yards Rushing: Under 70.5 (-118)

OddsShopper projects Najee Harris for 69.2 yards. Cleveland has the No. 9 run defense, allowing on average 105.9 yards per game. The last time these two teams played Harris went for 91 yards on 26 carries. With this being Roethlisberger’s last game, will the Steelers run the ball 26 times? The expected win rate of this bet was 68% with a 26% expected ROI when the line was at 71.5 yards, and there is still value here at 70.5 yards.

Dionte Johnson Receptions: Under 6.5 (-111)

Dionte Johnson is projected for 5.8 receptions according to OddsShopper. Johnson averages 6.57 receptions per game and has gone under 6.5 receptions in six out of 14 games this season. The last time they played the Browns, Johnson had six receptions on 13 targets. This bet has a 63% expected win rate and a 21% expected ROI.

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Jarvis Landry Yards Receiving: Over 48.5 (-110)

Jarvis Landry is projected for 60 yards according to OddsShopper. Pittsburgh has an average pass defense (No. 13), and Landry averages 45.2 yards per game. In his last three games, he has gone for 111 yards, 41 yards and 55 yards. Earlier this season against Pittsburgh he had 65 yards. This bet had a 61% expected win rate when the line was at 47.5, and there is still value in the bet at 48.5 yards.

Ben Roethlisberger Touchdowns Passing: Under 1.5 (-139)

OddsShopper projects Roethlisberger for 1.3 touchdowns passing. Roethlisberger averages 1.33 touchdowns per game. He has gone under the total in nine out of 15 games this season. Last time against Cleveland he passed for one touchdown. The expected win rate of this bet is 62%.

One Game Parlay (+800)

The top parlay is: Harris under 74.5 yards rushing (69.2 projected), Donovan Peoples-Jones over 29.5 yards receiving (43.2 projected), Landry over 44.5 yards receiving (60 projected), and Austin Hooper under 29.5 yards receiving (23.8 projected). If all four legs hit, it pays out eight times the wager.

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