NFL Best Bets: Week 16 Monday Night Football Odds & Picks

Tonight Alvin Kamara and the New Orleans Saints will host Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 16 Monday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.

BetMGM Week 16 NFL Best Bets: Monday Night Football

Moneyline: Saints (+140)

OddsShopper is the place to look before placing any bets. The model compares the current point spread the sportsbook offers compared to the expected point spread. The same is true for moneylines and point totals in that it compares expected to what the sportsbook offers. The +140 odds give the Saints a 41.66% chance of winning; OddsShopper gives the Saints a 69% chance of winning the bet. This is the best bet of the night.

Jaylen Waddle Yards Receiving: Under 62.5 (-115)

OddsShopper projects Jaylen Waddle for 41.2 yards. If the model is expecting the Saints to have a good day, then it makes some sense that the Dolphins will project worse than the books think. When the line was at 65.5, this bet had an expected win percentage of 85%.

Jaylen Waddle Receptions: Under 5.5 (+115)

Jaylen Waddle is projected for 3.7 receptions according to OddsShopper. This bet is correlated to the bet above. On the flip side, if betting Waddle over tonight, play over the reception total and the yard total. If Waddle goes under his receiving totals, he likely will have fewer receptions than projected as well. When the line was at 6.5 receptions, the expected win rate of the bet was 91%.

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Nick Vannett Yards Receiving: Under 23.5 (-115)

OddsShopper projects Nick Vannett is projected for 18.5 yards. He averages 24.6 yards per game and has gone under 23.5 yards in three of five games. He has had three games with just one target and one game with six targets and another game with four targets. This target inconsistency makes him difficult to project. That said the model gives this bet a 70% expected win rate with a 31% expected ROI.

Tua Tagovailoa Yards Passing: Over 232.5 (-110)

Tua Tagovailoa is projected for 250.8 yards according to OddsShopper. The Saints have the No. 18 pass defense in the NFL, allowing 240.2 yards per game on average. Tagovailoa averages 214.1 yards per game; removing the 1-for-4 for 13 yards in Week 2, he averages 236.4 yards per game. He has gone over 232.5 yards in five of nine games (taking out Week 2). When the line was at 230.5, the bet had an expected win rate of 69%. There is still value in the bet at 232.5.

Same Game Parlay (+450)

The top parlay is: Waddle under 59.5 yards receiving (41.2 projected), Vannett under 29.5 yards receiving (18.5 projected), Marquez Callaway over 29.5 yards receiving (43 projected). If all three legs hit, it pays out 4.5 times the wager.

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