Tonight Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills will host Mac Jones and the New England Patriots. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 13 Monday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.
BetMGM Week 13 NFL Best Bets: Monday Night Football
Point Spread: Bills -3 (-105)
OddsShopper is the place to look before placing any bets. The model compares the current point spread the sportsbook offers compared to the expected point spread. The same is true for moneylines and point totals in that it compares expected to what the sportsbook offers. The model has an expected point spread of 4.3 points. BetMGM has the point spread at 3 points. The 1.3-point difference in the expected point spread to what BetMGM set makes Bills -3 a good bet.
Cole Beasley Yards Receiving: Over 30.5 (-110)
OddsShopper projects Beasley for 46.4 yards. Beasley averages 48.18 yards per game, with a median of 34.5. The model gives this bet an expected win rate of 71% and an expected ROI of 35%, making it the best prop bet of the night.
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Mac Jones Yards Passing: Over 202.5 (-110)
OddsShopper projects Jones for 218.7 yards. The expected win rate was 61% when the line was set to 200.5 yards. With a projection that is 16.2 yards more than BetMGM is offering, there is value in the bet still. Jones has gone over this total in nine out of 12 games this season. Buffalo has the No. 2 pass defense. Jones went against the No. 5 pass defense in the Chargers and threw for 217 yards. He also went against the Browns, the No. 7 pass defense, and threw for 198 yards. The Browns game was a blowout, and Jones only attempted 23 passes.
Nelson Agholor Yards Receiving: Over 21.5 (-115)
Agholor is projected for 35.9 yards according to OddsShopper. Agholor averages 37.82 yards per game, with a median of 29.5. This bet also correlates to the Jones over bet. If Jones is going to pass for over his prop line, then there is a chance that at least one receiver will go over their prop line total as well. The expected win rate of this bet is 68% according to the model.
Jakobi Meyers Yards Receiving: Over 41.5 (-115)
OddsShopper projects 53.2 yards for Meyers tonight. Meyers averages 51.67 yards per game, with a median of 44. Meyers has gone over this total in eight out of 12 games this season. This correlates to the Jones bet. The model gives this bet an expected win rate of 63%.
One-Game Parlay (+600)
With one-game parlays, the best play is to choose bets that have a high win expectancy in the model but a lower expected ROI than the bets above alone. If stacking the last three bets in a single-game parlay, Jones over 199.5 yards passing, Agholor over 24.5 yards receiving and Meyers over 39.5 yards receiving would be a payout of 3.5x the wager.
However, this bet has some of the highest expected win rates according to OddsShopper: Allen one or more touchdowns passing (1.6 projected), Dawson Knox over 24.5 yards receiving (31.9 projected), Rhamondre Stevenson over 44.5 yards rushing (50.7 projected) and Stefon Diggs over 64.5 yards receiving (69.1 projected). If all four legs of the parlay hit, the payout will be 6x the wager.
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