Tonight Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers will host Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 10 Monday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.
BetMGM Week 10 NFL Best Bets: Monday Night Football
Moneyline: Los Angeles Rams (-185)
Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model is the place to look before placing any bets. The model compares the current moneylines the sportsbook offers compared to the expected win probability. The same is true for point spreads and point totals in that it compares expected to what the sportsbook offers. The model gives the Rams a 63% chance of winning the game. BetMGM has the odds set to -185, which is a 65% chance of winning the game. This is not an optimal bet, but it still is the best traditional bet of the night.
Point Spread: Rams -3.5 (-110)
The expected point spread tonight, according to Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model, is 4.5 points, while BetMGM has the line at 3.5. There has only been one win for the Rams that was within one score, which was Week 2 against the Colts. After San Francisco’s dismal outing last week against a depleted Cardinals team, it is difficult to visualize the 49ers keeping the game close. This is a viable alternative to the moneyline if one does not want to pay the juice of the minus 185 odds.
Brandon Aiyuk Receptions: Under 4.5 (-160)
The Player Props Tool projects Brandon Aiyuk for 3.07 receptions. Aiyuk is coming off a six-reception game last week. Prior to that, he was under this total in all six games he played. Was last week one good game, or is it a resurgence with more to come? According to the model, this bet has an expected win rate of 81% and an expected ROI of 31%.
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Darrell Henderson Jr. Yards Rushing: Under 69.5 (-115)
Darrell Henderson Jr. is projected to rush for 58.98 yards according to the Player Props Tool. Henderson is averaging 70.25 yards rushing per game, with a median of 74 yards. When the line was set at 70.50 yards, the model had an expected win rate of 70% and ROI of 27%. There is still value, even if the line is set at 1 fewer yard than originally posted.
Deebo Samuel Yards Receiving: Over 69.5 (-115)
Deebo Samuel is projected for 88.27 yards receiving in the Player Props Tool. Samuel is averaging 110.25 yards per game, with a median of 96.5. The only thing that should slow down Samuel is San Francisco itself, as the Rams have the No. 17 passing defense, allowing 248.7 yards per game. According to the model, this bet has a 64% expected win rate and a 19% expected ROI.
One-Game Parlay (+675)
The best one-game parlay at BetMGM is a series that projects well in the Player Props Tool: Cooper Kupp over 95 yards receiving (114.2 projected), Henderson under 69.5 yards rushing (58.98 projected) and Rams -3.5. The payout if all three legs hit is 6.75x.
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