Tonight Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals will host Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 14 Monday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.
BetMGM Week 14 NFL Best Bets: Monday Night Football
Point Spread: Cardinals -2.5 (-110)
OddsShopper is the place to look before placing any bets. The model compares the current point spread the sportsbook offers compared to the expected point spread. The same is true for money lines and point totals in that it compares expected to what the sportsbook offers. The model has an expected point spread of 3.5 points. BetMGM has the point spread at 2.5 points. The 1-point difference between expected and actual point spread makes this the best traditional bet of the night.
Moneyline: Cardinals (-130)
The model gives Arizona a 61% chance of winning the game. The -130 odds imply a 56.5% chance of winning. When the expected win percentage is higher than the odds the sportsbook gives, that is a bet to make.
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Rondale More Yards Receiving: Over 24.5 (-115)
OddsShopper projects Moore for 48.2 yards. Moore averages 35.08 yards per game and has gone over this total in six out of 12 games this season. When the total was at 22.5, the model had this bet winning 80% of the time and an 49% expected ROI. At 24.5 yards, there is still a lot of value in this bet, making it by far the best prop bet of the night; the next highest expected ROI in prop bets is 19%.
Cooper Kupp Yards Receiving: Over 90.5(-115)
OddsShopper projects Kupp for 109.5 yards. Kupp averages 113.83 yards per game. He has gone over the 90.5 total in 11 out of 12 games this season. Arizona does have the No. 4 pass defense in the NFL, but San Francisco is No. 6 and Kupp went out for 122 yards against them. It is worth noting that the one game Kupp did not go over 90.5 yards was Week 4 against Arizona where they held him to 64 yards. That makes this bet even more appealing. It has a 64% expected win rate and a 19% expected ROI.
Tyler Higbee Yards Receiving: Over 36.5 (-110)
Higbee is projected for 44.8 yards according to OddsShopper. Higbee averages 32.92 yards per game and has gone over this total in five out of 12 games. The last time they played Arizona, he was right at 36 yards, but that was before all of the injuries to the corps. It makes sense now to project an uptick in Higbee’s targets with a lack of options on the team; last week he had six targets and 48 yards. The model gives this bet a 61% expected win rate and a 19% expected ROI.
Matthew Stafford Yards Passing: Over 282.5 (-110)
OddsShopper projects 298.2 yards passing for Stafford tonight. This bet correlates to the above Kupp and Higbee bets. If both of those receivers are to go over their projected line, then Stafford should as well. Stafford averages 300.92 yards passing per game. When the Rams played Arizona last, he was held to 280 yards passing. OddsShopper has the expected win rate at 62% and expected ROI at 16%.
One-Game Parlay (+250, +333 or +625)
One option is to parlay the Stafford/Kupp/Higbee bet. Because the one-game parlay uses different totals, it would be Stafford over 279.5 yards passing (298.2 projected), Higbee over 29.5 yards receiving (44.8 projected) and Kupp over 89.5 yards receiving (109.5 projected). That bet would be +250 for a 2.5x the wager payout. Adjusting Higbee to over 39.5 instead of 29.5 would bring it up to +333.
Another option Kupp over 89.5 yards receiving (109.5 projected), Moore over 39.5 yards receiving (48.2 projected) and Murray two-plus touchdowns passing (2.1 projected) at +625 for a 6.25x the wager payout.
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