Tonight D.K. Metcalf and the Seattle Seahawks will host Alvin Kamara and the New Orleans Saints. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 7 Monday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.
BetMGM Week 7 NFL Best Bets: Monday Night Football
Point Total: Over 41.5 (-110)
Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model is the place to look before placing any bets. The model compares the current point totals the sportsbook provides compared to what the expected point total should be, and the same for money lines and point spreads. The model gives an expected point total of 42.3 points. When this line was at 43.5, the under was the bet, but now that it is at 41.5 the over is the bet to make here.
Point Spread: New Orleans -4 (-110)
The model has an expected point spread of 4.5 points and BetMGM now has the point spread set at 4 points. In their wins on the season, New Orleans has won by 35 points, 15 points, and 11 points. The closest game New Orleans has been in, they lost to the New York Giants 21-27 in Week 5.
Geno Smith Pass Completions: Over 18.5 (-105)
When looking for player props, Awesemo’s Player Props Tool is the place to see what players are projected to do compared to the odds offered at sportsbooks. Geno Smith is projected for 20.24 pass completions, and this bet has a 62% chance of winning and a 21% expected ROI. Last week Smith completed 23 passes on 32 pass attempts. In a game where Seattle is projected to lose, they will likely be down in the fourth quarter and will have to pass frequently. New Orleans has the No. 23 pass defense and the No. 2 run defense in the NFL.
Tyler Lockett Receptions Made: Over 3.5 (-150)
The Player Props Tool projects Tyler Lockett for five receptions. Lockett is averaging 4.5 receptions per game, with a median of four. Although Lockett caught just two passes against Pittsburgh last week, he is facing a worse pass defense and has hit the over every game this season except for last week. The model gives this bet a 70% chance of winning.
Marquez Callaway Receiving Yards: Over 43.5 (-115)
The Player Props Tool projects Marquez Callaway for 51.40 yards receiving. Callaway is averaging 44.4 yards per game, with a median of 41. After a slow start to the season, Callaway has picked it up prior to heading into their bye week. He had 85 yards in Week 5 and 74 yards in Week 4. Seattle has the No. 28 pass defense, allowing 292.3 yards per game. The model gives this bet a 61% chance of winning and an expected ROI of 15%.
One-Game Parlay (+425)
The best one-game parlay at BetMGM is a combination of the above bets, along with a bet one cannot get standalone that projects well in the Player Props Tool: Jameis Winston over 199.5 yards passing (215.62 projected), Saints -3.5 (-4.5 expected) and total points over 41.5 (42.3 projected). If all three legs of this parlay hit, that wins 4.25x the bet.
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