Tonight Terry McLaurin and the Washington Football Team will host Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 12 Monday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.
BetMGM Week 12 NFL Best Bets: Monday Night Football
Point Spread: Seahawks +1 (-110)
Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model is the place to look before placing any bets. The model compares the current point spread the sportsbook offers compared to the expected point spread. The same is true for moneylines and point totals in that it compares expected to what the sportsbook offers. The model has an expected point spread of Seattle -2.5 points. BetMGM has the point spread set to Seattle +1. The difference in this line makes Seattle a good bet.
J.D. McKissic Yards Rushing: Under 19.5 (-115)
The Player Props Tool is where to look before placing any prop bets. The model projects J.D. McKissic for 18.08 yards rushing. When the total was at 20.5 yards, the model gave this bet a 69% expected win total and a 28% expected ROI. Even with the line decreasing by 1 yard, there is still value in the bet.
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Tyler Lockett Yards Receiving: Over 61.5 (-115)
The Player Props Tool projects Tyler Lockett for 72.6 yards. The expected win rate was 62% when the line was set to 60.5 yards. With a projection that is 11.1 yards more than BetMGM is offering, this is still a good bet to make. Lockett has gone over this total four out of 10 times this season and will be looking to make it five out of 11 times.
Russell Wilson Yards Passing: Over 243.50 (-115)
Wilson is projected for 260.66 yards passing according to the Player Props Tool. When the line for this bet was 240.5, the expected ROI was 12% with an expected win rate of 60%. Even with it increased to 243.5, there is still value in the bet. Wilson has hit the over three out of seven times this season and looking to get back on track against the No. 28 pass defense in the NFL, which allows 270 yards per game through the air.
D.K. Metcalf Yards Receiving: Over 63.5 (-115)
If Wilson is going to have a big day through the air, it is not crazy to think that D.K. Metcalf could have a better-than-expected day as well. The Player Props Tool projects 75.89 yards receiving for Metcalf tonight. This bet has a 59% expected win rate and an 11% expected ROI. Metcalf has gone over this total four out of 10 times this season.
One-Game Parlay (+600)
With one-game parlays, the best play is to choose bets that have a high win expectancy in the model but a lower expected ROI than the bets above alone. The top one-game parlay for this game is Antonio Gibson under 79.5 rushing yards (66.30 projected), Adam Humphries over 19.5 yards receiving (26.43 projected) and Alex Collins over 59.5 rushing yards (65.66 projected). If all three legs of this parlay hit, it will pay out 6x the wager.
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