Tonight Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears will host Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 15 Monday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.
BetMGM Week 15 NFL Best Bets: Monday Night Football
Point Total: Under 45.5 (-110)
OddsShopper is the place to look before placing any bets. The model compares the current point total the sportsbook offers compared to the expected point total. The same is true for money lines and point spreads in that it compares expected to what the sportsbook offers. The model has an expected 42.5-point total for tonight’s game. BetMGM is offering the point total at 45.5 points. This three-point difference between expected and offered signifies this is a good bet. OddsShopper gives a 66% chance of winning the bet.
Moneyline: Bears +240
The +240 odds imply a 29% chance of winning the game. OddsShopper gives the Bears a 34% chance of winning the game. When the expected win rate is higher than the rate the sportsbook offers, it is a recommended bet. This bet has an expected ROI of 7%.
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Cole Kmet Receptions: Over 2.5 (-154)
OddsShopper projects Cole Kmet for 4.0 receptions. He had a season-high eight receptions three games ago and has had three receptions in each of his last two games. He averages 3.3 receptions per game and has gone over 2.5 receptions in eight of 13 games this season, including six of the last seven games. This bet has a 75% expected win rate and a 25% expected ROI.
Dalvin Cook Yards Receiving: Over 17.5 (-115)
Dalvin Cook is projected for 27.7 yards according to OddsShopper. Cook averages 21.9 yards receiving per game and has gone over the 17.5 total in four of 10 games this season. When the line was at 15.5, it had an expected win rate of 70%. There is still value at 17.5 yards.
Justin Fields Completions: Over 17.5 (-115)
Justin Fields is projected for 20.9 completions according to OddsShopper. Fields averages just 12.1 completions per game on the season, but he has gone over 17.5 completions in three of his last five games. Minnesota has the No. 29 pass defense in the league, and if a struggling quarterback is going to have a good passing day, it is likely to be against one of the worst passing defenses. This bet has a 73% expected win rate.
Darnell Mooney Receptions: Over 3.5 (-154)
OddsShopper projects Darnell Mooney for five receptions. This bet is correlated to the Fields completions bet. If Fields is going to complete more passes than the sportsbook projects, then his receivers such as Kmet and Mooney are likely going to go over their reception totals as well. Mooney is averaging four receptions per game on the season. He had just one reception last week against Green Bay, but he had five receptions in each of the previous three games to that. He has gone over the 3.5 total in eight of 13 games this season. This bet 71% expected win rate and had a 19% expected ROI when the line was at -148.
One-Game Parlay (+425)
Generally, the best strategy is to target this parlay with bets that have a high win expectancy. Three bets that have high expectancy rates not covered above are Fields over 194.5 yards passing (222 projected), David Montgomery over 54.5 yards rushing (73.8 projected), Justin Jefferson under 99.5 yards receiving (85.5 projected). If all three legs of the parlay hit, it would pay 4.25 times the wager.
If one adjusts Fields to over 219.5 yards passing, the bet goes to +600. Montgomery to over 64.5 yards rushing would bring the total bet to +800.
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