Tonight, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will host Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 5 Sunday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.
BetMGM Week 5 NFL Best Bets: Sunday Night Football
Point Spread: Buffalo +2.5 (-105)
Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model compares the current point spread the sportsbook provides compared to what the expected point spread should be, and the same for point totals and moneylines. The model shows an expected point spread of 1.8 points, and BetMGM has a point spread of 2.5 points. According to the model, this is the best traditional bet to make of the night, with an expected ROI of -4.5%.
The moneyline opened the week at Buffalo +160, which has a 38% chance of winning, while the model expects Buffalo to win 43% of the time. When the sportsbook gives a lower chance of winning than the model, it is positive expected ROI to place the bet. Unfortunately, the moneyline is +120, which is about a 45% chance of Buffalo winning. If the idea of placing a bet with an expected negative ROI is something to avoid, BetMGM also has many other bets such as props and one-game parlays.
Darrel Williams Yards Rushing: Over 16.5 (-120)
When looking for player props, Awesemo’s Player Props Tool is the place to see what players are projected to do compared to the odds offered at sportsbooks. Darrel Williams rushing for more than 16.5 yards is one of the best prop bets of the night. Williams’ workload has been increasing each week: One carry in Week 1, three in Week 2, seven in Week 3 and then 10 in Week 4 last week. He is averaging 3.2 yards per carry. The model gives a projection of 27.54 yards, an 81% expected win rate and an expected ROI of 52% when the odds were at -113. All he needs to do to win this bet is carry the ball six times. Even at move to (-120), this is still a great bet to make.
Zack Moss Receptions Made: Under 1.5 (+130)
The player props tool projects Zack Moss to catch 1.48 passes and gives a 58% expected win rate for this bet. This is a situation where the book is saying there is a 43% chance of happening, and the model says there is a 58% chance of happening. Moss averages two targets and 1.66 catches per game. Last week against Houston he was targeted once and caught zero passes. Because of the disparity between the sports book and the model, this is a bet to take a chance on.
Travis Kelce Yards Receiving: Under 89.5 (-115)
The player props tool projects Travis Kelce for 81.21 yards receiving and gives a 65% chance of winning the bet, with an expected ROI of 22%. Kelce is averaging 78 yards receiving per game and only had 23 yards last week. Buffalo has not allowed over 50 yards receiving to the tight end position in a game yet this year.
One-Game Parlay (+425)
The best one-game parlay at BetMGM is total points under 56.5 (55.8 projected), Mecole Hardman over 24.5 yards receiving (39.52 projected) and Devin Singletary over 24.5 yards rushing (38.53 projected). If all three legs of this parlay hit, the payout is 4.25x.
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