Tonight Derek Carr and the Las Vegas Raiders will host Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 10 Sunday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.
BetMGM Week 10 NFL Best Bets: Sunday Night Football
Point Spread: Las Vegas Raiders +2.5 (-105)
Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model is the place to look before placing any bets. The model compares the current point spread the sportsbook offers compared to the expected spread. The same is true for money lines and point totals. The model gives an expected point spread of the Raiders being favored by 0.3 points, essentially a pick-’em. BetMGM has the point spread set at the Raiders +2.5 points. According to the model, this bet has a 14.2% expected ROI and is the best traditional bet to make on the night.
Point Total: Over 52.5 (-110)
The expected point total tonight according to Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model is 53.5 points while BetMGM has the line set at 52.5 points. The Raiders average 24.5 points per game, and the Chiefs average 24.6 points per game. Las Vegas is No. 15 in points allowed per game, while Kansas City is No. 25. It would be reasonable to expect a baseline of 49 points scored in this contest, but with both defenses being average (Raiders) to below average (Chiefs), getting a few more points out of this game is a reasonable expectation. The expected ROI of this bet, according to the model, is 6.2%.
Moneyline: Raiders (+125)
Another bet to consider is the moneyline. Right now BetMGM has it set at +125, which is a 44.44% chance of winning the game. The Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model puts the Raiders’ chances at 49%. A nearly 5-point discrepancy invites a bet.
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Darrel Williams Yards Receiving: Under 20.5 (-110)
The Player Props Tool projects Darrel Williams for 17.70 yards receiving. Since Week 3 of the season, Williams has averaged 24.29 yards per game, but he has gone under this total four out of seven games. The model gives this bet a 70% chance of winning and an expected ROI of 33%, and it is the best prop bet of the night on BetMGM.
Patrick Mahomes Completions: Under 26.5 (-130)
Mahomes is projected to complete 24.22 passes according to the Player Props Tool. Mahomes is completing 65.2% of his passes this season. If his season averages hold, he would need to attempt 41 passes to hit the over. He is averaging 40.22 pass attempts per game and 26.22 completions per game. He has gone under this total in four out of nine games this season. The model likes the chances of winning this bet; it has a 69% expected win rate and a 25% expected ROI.
Travis Kelce Receptions: Under 6.5 (-130)
Travis Kelce is projected for 5.57 receptions in the Player Props Tool. On the season he has averaged six receptions per game. He has gone under this total in five out of nine games so far. This bet has a 68% expected win rate and had an expected ROI of 22% when the odds were at -125, but there is still value in this bet.
One-Game Parlay (+675)
The best one-game parlay at BetMGM is a series that projects well in the Player Props Tool: Kelce under 79.5 receiving yards (67.05 projected), Darren Waller over five receptions (6.5 projected), Josh Jacobs over 14.5 yards receiving (17.95 projected) and Raiders +2.5. If all four legs of this parlay hit, it pays out 6.75x the bet.
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