Tonight Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will host Alvin Kamara and the New Orleans Saints. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 15 Sunday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.
BetMGM Week 15 NFL Best Bets: Sunday Night Football
Moneyline: Saints (+400)
OddsShopper is the place to look before placing any bets. The model compares the current point total the sportsbook offers compared to the expected point total. The same is true for moneylines and point spreads in that it compares expected to what the sportsbook offers. The model gives the Saints a 23% chance to win, the BetMGM odds at +400 implies a 20% chance of winning. When the model gives a team a better chance of winning than the sportsbook does, it is a bet to make. The expected win rate is 28% and the expected ROI is 23%.
Point Spread: Saints +11.5 (-110)
If the moneyline feels too risky of a bet, the Point Spread is a safer bet to make. The model has an expected point spread of nine points, however, BetMGM has the point spread at 11.5 points. OddsShopper gives this bet a 60% expected win rate with a 7% expected ROI.
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Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards: Under 53.5 (-115)
OddsShopper projects Alvin Kamara for 52.8 yards. Tampa Bay has the No. 3 rushing defense in the NFL, allowing just 91.2 rushing yards per game. The last time these teams played, Kamara rushed for 61 yards on 19 carries (3.2 yards per carry), however, that was also a game that New Orleans won. If New Orleans is expected to be down for a majority of the game, it is difficult to envision Kamara getting 19 carries. When the line was at 55.5 yards, the bet had an expected win rate of 66%. There is still value in the current line.
Chris Godwin Receiving Yards: Over 77.5 (-115)
Chris Godwin is projected for 82.5 yards according to OddsShopper. Godwin averages 81.07 receiving yards per game this season. In the last two weeks, he has gotten 32 targets total. New Orleans has an average pass defense, N0. 18 on the season. The last time these two teams played, Godwin caught eight passes for 140 yards. When the line was at 73.5, this bet had an expected win rate of 62% and there is still value in this line.
Rob Gronkowski Receiving Yards: Over 53.5 (-115)
Rob Gronkowski is projected for 60.7 yards according to OddsShopper. Gronkowski has gone over this total in six of the eight games he has played this season, including each of his last four games since coming back from injury. This bet has a 57% expected win rate and a 7% expected ROI.
Tom Brady Passing Yards: Over 300.5 (-110)
OddsShopper projects Tom Brady for 304.9 passing yards. Brady averages 318 passing yards per game, and he passed for 375 yards the last time Tampa Bay played New Orleans earlier in the season. Additionally, this bet is correlated to the over bets for Gronkowski and Godwin. If multiple receivers go over their receiving total, it makes sense that the quarterback would go over his total too.
One-Game Parlay (+360)
Generally, the best strategy is to target this parlay with bets that have a high win expectancy. Unfortunately, many of the bets with high win expectancy in this game have a negative expected ROI. The above prop bets are really the only ones I like for this game. If we stack the Brady-Godwin-Gronkowski bets from above, we have a chance at a pretty good return. This would be Brady over 299.5 passing yards, Godwin over 74.5 receiving yards, and Gronkowski over 59.5 receiving yards for a return of 3.6 times our wager if all three of the legs win.
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