Tonight Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers will host Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 11 Sunday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.
BetMGM Week 11 NFL Best Bets: Sunday Night Football
Point Spread: Steelers +6.0 (-110)
Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model is the place to look before placing any bets. The model compares the current point spread the sportsbook offers compared to the expected point spread. The same is true for money lines and point totals in that it compares expected to what the sportsbook offers. The model has an expected point spread of 3.8 points. BetMGM has the point spread set to 6 points. Taking the Steelers and the points is the bet to make.
Najee Harris Rushing Yards: Under 80.5 (-115)
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Pat Freiermuth Receptions: Under 3.5 (-115)
The Player Props Tool projects Pat Freiermuth for 3.43 receptions. Freiermuth averages 3.55 receptions per game with a median of 3.5 receptions. Previously when the prop was at 4.5 receptions, the model gave a 73% expected win rate.
Mike Williams Receiving Yards: Over 53.5 (-115)
Mike Williams is projected for 69.17 receiving yards according to the Player Props Tool. Williams averages 69.56 receiving yards per game with a median of just 45.5 receiving yards. Williams had been nursing an injury in the past and has become less involved in the passing game. The first five weeks of the season, he averaged 94.2 receiving yards per game.
Ben Roethlisberger Pass Completions: Over 22.5 (-105)
Ben Roethlisberger is projected for 23.7 pass completions according to the Player Props Tool. Roethlisberger averages 24.5 pass completions per game. Pittsburgh is No. 10 in pass play percentage at 61.95% of plays. The model gives this bet a 59% chance of winning.
Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards: Over 58.5 (-115)
Austin Ekeler is projected for 73.41 rushing yards according to the Player Props Tool. Pittsburgh has the No. 24 rushing defense, allowing 123 rushing yards per game. Ekeler averages 52.3 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry. Ekeler averages 11.2 carries per game, if he can get to 13 this game, he should hit the over. This bet has a 64% chance of winning with a 19% expected ROI.
One-Game Parlay (+550)
With one-game parlays, the best play is to choose bets that have a high win expectancy in the model but a lower expected ROI than the bets above alone. The top one-game parlay for this game is Chase Claypool over 39.5 receiving yards (53.39 projected), Justin Herbert two-plus passing touchdowns (2.05 projected), Jared Cook over 24.5 receiving yards (36.5 projected), and Ben Roethlisberger over 249.5 passing yards (253.65 projected). If all four legs of this parlay hit, it will be 5.5 times the bet.
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