Tonight Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will host Teddy Bridgewater and the Denver Broncos. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 13 Sunday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.
BetMGM Week 13 NFL Best Bets: Sunday Night Football
Point Total: Over 46.5 (-110)
OddsShopper is the place to look before placing any bets. The model compares the current point total the sportsbook offers compared to the expected point total. The same is true for moneylines and point spreads in that it compares expected to what the sportsbook offers. The model has an expected point total of 49.5 points. BetMGM has the point total set at 46.5 points. The three-point difference in the expected point total to the point total set by BetMGM makes over 46.5 points a good bet. According to the model, this bet has an expected win percentage of 69% and an expected ROI of 16%.
Demarcus Robinson Receptions: Under 1.5 (-110)
OddsShopper is where to look before placing any prop bets. The model projects Demarcus Robinson for 1.2 receptions. Robinson averages 1.78 receptions per game on the season, however, his median is 1.0 receptions per game. In five of his nine games played, he has had just one reception. The model gives this bet an expected win rate of 67% and an expected ROI of 28%, making it the best prop bet of the night.
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Byron Pringle Yards Receiving: Over 23.5 (-115)
OddsShopper projects Byron Pringle for 35 receiving yards. The expected win rate was 69% when the line was set to 20.5 yards. With a projection that is 11.5 yards more than BetMGM is offering, there is value in the bet still. Pringle averages 33.8 receiving yards per game with a median of 30 receiving yards per game. In the last five games, he has gotten more involved in the offense, averaging 44.6 receiving yards per game.
Javonte Williams Yards Receiving: Under 29.5 (-115)
Javonte Williams is projected for 26.4 receiving yards according to OddsShopper. Williams averages 17.55 receiving yards per game, with a median of 14.5 receiving yards per game. Melvin Gordon is going to be out for the game tonight. Gordon averages 15.1 receiving yards per game with a median of 14.5 receiving yards per game as well. It would take Williams receiving 100% of Gordon’s work to go over the line set.
Teddy Bridgewater Passing Touchdowns: Under 1.5 (-115)
OddsShopper projects 1.3 passing touchdowns for Teddy Bridgewater tonight. Bridgewater averages 1.36 passing touchdowns per game with a median of 1 passing touchdown. In his last five games, Bridgewater has averaged one passing touchdown per game: three games had one passing touchdown, one had zero, and one had two. This bet has an expected win rate of 63%.
One-Game Parlay (+575)
With one-game parlays, the best play is to choose bets that have a high win expectancy in the model, but a lower expected ROI than the bets above alone. The top one-game parlay for this game is Courtland Sutton over 39.5 yards receiving (53.7 projected), Javonte Williams under 74.5 yards rushing (66.5 projected), and Pringle over 29.5 yards receiving (35 projected). If all three legs of this parlay hit, it will pay out 5.75x the wager.
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