NFL Best Bets: Week 17 Sunday Night Football Odds & Picks

Tonight Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers will host Dalvin Cook and the Minnesota Vikings. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 17 Sunday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.

BetMGM Week 17 NFL Best Bets: Sunday Night Football

Points Spread: Vikings +12.5 (-110)

OddsShopper is the place to look before placing any bets. The model compares the current point spread the sportsbook offers compared to the expected point spread. The same is true for moneylines and point totals in that it compares expected to what the sportsbook offers. With Kirk Cousins out for the game, the spread is larger than one might expect if he were playing. When the line was at 13.5, this bet had a 60% expected win rate and at 12.5 points there is still value there. This is the best traditional bet of the night.

Dalvin Cook Rushing Yards: Under 79.5 (-115)

OddsShopper projects Dalvin Cook for 74.9 yards. Green Bay does not have a great run defense, No. 18. With Kirk Cousins out, Cook will likely be tasked with high volume early in the game. The issue is that if Green Bay will win by two or more scores, as BetMGM has set, then at some point the Vikings will either need to be pass heavy and/or they will start pulling out players if it’s a blowout. This bet had a 68% expected win rate with a 22% expected ROI when the line was at 80.5. There is still value in the bet here.

Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards: Under 262.5 (-115)

Aaron Rodgers is projected for 269.5 yards according to OddsShopper. The Vikings have the No. 27 pass defense in the NFL, allowing 248.5 yards per game on average. I am going to take the other side of the bet from OddsShopper in this one. The weather in Green Bay is expected to be cold, this will likely not be a competitive game, and the Vikings on average allow less than the line here. Most will likely go the over, as Rodgers did pass for 385 yards last time out, but that was a game that Minnesota won by three.

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Tyler Conklin Yards Receiving: Over 22.5 (-118)

Tyler Conklin is projected for 30.5 yards according to OddsShopper. Green Bay does have a good passing offense, No. 10 in the league. Conklin averages 10 yards per reception, so this is a bet he can reach the over in two receptions but would very likely reach it if he made three. He has had three or more catches in 10 out of 15 games played this season. The question is if Sean Mannion can get him the ball?

Aaron Jones Yards Receiving: Over 18.5 (-110)

OddsShopper projects Aaron Jones for 24.2 yards. Jones averages 24.06 receiving yards per game and has gone over 18.5 yards in eight out of 14 games this season. The expected win rate of this bet is 56% and the expected ROI is 7%.

After this bet, the remaining props have under 5% ROI, many of them more in the 1%-2% range.

One Game Parlay (+700)

The top parlay is: Rodgers under 274.5 passing yards (269.5 projected), Conklin over 19.5 yards receiving (30.5 projected), Cook under 84.5 yards rushing (74.9 projected), and AJ Dillon under 59.5 rushing yards (55.7 projected). If all four legs hit, it pays out seven times the wager.

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